Five Thirty Eight: Who Will Win the Presidency?

BDBoop

Former Staff
Dec 2010
46,461
43,036
Twitter
#1
Who will win the presidency?

Save this ^^^ link, it's going to be active right down to election day.



Donald Trump Has A 20% Chance Of Becoming President


The short answer is that 20 percent or 25 percent is a pretty reasonable estimate of Trump’s chances based on the polls and other empirical evidence. In fact, that’s quite close to where FiveThirtyEight’s statistical models, which are launching today, have the race. Our polls-only model has Trump with a 19 percent chance of beating Clinton as of early Wednesday afternoon. (The forecasts will continually update as new polls are added.) Our polls-plus model, which considers economic conditions along with the polls, is more optimistic about Trump, giving him a 26 percent chance.

Still, Trump faces longer odds and a bigger polling deficit than John McCain and Mitt Romney did at the same point in their respective races. He needs to look back to 1988 for comfort, when George H.W. Bush overcame a similar deficit against Michael Dukakis to win. Our models are built from data since 1972, so the probabilities we list account for elections such as 1980, 1988 and 1992, when the polls swung fairly wildly, along with others, such as 2004 and 2012, where the polls were quite stable.
 
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BDBoop

Former Staff
Dec 2010
46,461
43,036
Twitter
#4
Nate Silver is a well known liberal and his stats are always biased, unless he is predicting a Republican win....
Oh, I know. And then he's the second coming of Christ. Probably walks on water to deliver his articles.
 

BDBoop

Former Staff
Dec 2010
46,461
43,036
Twitter
#7
How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump

There’s a lot more to the story, so I’m going to proceed in five sections:

1. Our early forecasts of Trump’s nomination chances weren’t based on a statistical model, which may have been most of the problem.

2. Trump’s nomination is just one event, and that makes it hard to judge the accuracy of a probabilistic forecast.

3. The historical evidence clearly suggested that Trump was an underdog, but the sample size probably wasn’t large enough to assign him quite so low a probability of winning.

4. Trump’s nomination is potentially a point in favor of “polls-only” as opposed to “fundamentals” models.

5. There’s a danger in hindsight bias, and in overcorrecting after an unexpected event such as Trump’s nomination.
 
Likes: 1 person
Jun 2013
29,973
22,545
VA
#9
That moron gave Trump a 5% chance to win the Republican nomination.

What an idiot.
Let's see...who's the bigger moron-

A. Nate Silver, who correctly predictged 49 states in 2008....and ALL 50 states in 2012


B. the guy who "non-predicted predicted" that Hillary would be indicted....before three months ago?
:)
 
Likes: 1 person

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