GOP Superdelegate count 09/24/11: Romney 10, Perry 1, Santorum 1

Jun 2011
27,485
7,962
N/A
GOP Superdelegate count starting 09/24/11: Romney 10, Perry 3, Santorum 1

DemCon Watch is also keeping track of the GOP superdelegates.

Information here. And here.

Saul Anuzis just declared for Romney.

Henry Barbour, Haley's nephew, has declared for Perry.

Kim Lehman (Tea Party, IA) has declared for Santorum. Yes, THAT Kim Lehman:

Huffpo, 08-23-10:

"Last Friday, a Republican National Committee woman Kim Lehman, responding to an article about the polls in Politico, accused the publication of trying "to protect Obama" by denying his true religious heritage.

"BTW he personally told the muslims that he IS a muslim," wrote the Iowa RNC member. "Read his lips."


(Oy!)




Romney's SDs thus far:





Update 10/14/11: Perry picked up two more supers. See post. no. 9
 
Last edited:

jackalope

Former Staff
Jan 2010
51,139
17,672
Maine
Hey, I didn't know (or didn't remember) that the GOP also used superdelegates ...
 
Jun 2011
27,485
7,962
N/A
This "Republican Superdelegate" thing is something I didn't know about either, so I did a little research. It seems to be not quite the same animal as the Democratic version.

What about Republican Super Delegates? Aren't they undemocratic too? - Yahoo! Answers
They serve the same function, however. They are unpledged delegates made up most of party dignitaries and current operatives who get to (mostly) cast a vote on their own. Only 6 states (or less, actually) for the GOP primaries have a requirement that the Supers must also go with WTA. See posting no. 7 below.

But just as in the Democratic Primary process, the Supers are the wild card in the whole thing.
 
Last edited:
Jun 2011
27,485
7,962
N/A
BTW, I want to alert you all to two threads I already started:

1.) I mentioned the GOP Superdelegate information first on August 16, 2011. Back then, Romney already had 4 Supers pledged to him. And Santorum's delegate had already pledged as well.

2.) A day before, on August 15th, I provided a pretty intensive analysis of the GOP nomination process, I encourage all to read it. Especially helpful may be this chart of all the primaries, chronologically, including each states rules for allocation and "bounding" at the convention. As soon as my new blog is up and running here at PH, I will be able to port such large charts (they chew up well over 100,000 characters), but for now, just go to my blogspot website and see it for youselves.

Excerpts from my August 16th thread here at PH:

"Based on the results from the 2008 primaries, I noticed that the vast majority of republican states were WTA (winner take all) states, but this has changed some. Here some new statistics: of the 56 contests that will be fought out in 50 states, DC and 5 territories (US Samoa, Guam, N. Marinaras, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands):

Note: the open primaries are in bold and green, for instance, VA (49)
The semi-open primary is in bold and blue: AZ (57)




7 are caucus or convention type situations where the delegates are free and unbound from the direct popular vote, worth 167 delegates (6.9% of all delegates): WY (29), IA (28), Am. Samoa (9), N. Marianas (9), Guam (9), MN (40), WA (43)



11 are absolute WTA contests based on the statewide vote, often including the 3 unpledged delegates that are generally assigned to each state, worth 397 delegates (or 16.4% all all delegates): MO (53), NJ (50), AZ (57), VA (49), VT (17), LA (45)***, DC (19), CT (28), DE (17), MT (26), UT (36)



1 is an absolute WTA contest by STATE district instead of Cds, but without at-large delegates: RI (19)


16 are a mix of WTA per CD for pledged delegates and WTA per statewide vote for the at-large delegates, worth 977 delegates (40.3% of all delegates): SC (50), FL (99), GA(75), KS (40), WI (42), OK (43), TN (58)***, AL (50)***, MS (37)***, MD (37), NY (95)***, IN (46), OH (66), WV (31), AR (36)***,CA (172)


2 are a mix of WTA per CD for some delegates and proportional allotment by statewide vote for the at-large delegates, worth 211 delegates (8.7% of all delegates). MI (59), TX (152)***


11 are entirely proportional, worth 352 delegates (14.5% of all delegates): NH (23), AK (28), NV(28), MA (41), Hi (20), NC (55), ID (32) – 80% proportional, OR (29), KY (45), NM (23), SD (28),


3 are „Loophole“ Primaries, meaning that the results of the popular vote will have absolutely no impact on the selection of the delegates themselves, worth 176 delegates (7.3% of all delegates): IL (69), PA (72), NE (35). The loophole states are absolute wild cards and MI is in danger of again losing 1/2 of its delegates, should it decide to frontload. This would be to Mitt Romney's DISADVANTAGE.


2 are the direct result of selection by the state republican party, worth 33 delegates: ME (24), Virgin Islands (9).


Special cases, not listed above::


In ND (28), If one candidate gets over 2/3, then WTA (25 of 28) / if not, then proportional (threshold = 15%).


In Puerto Rico (23), it is WTA if a candidate gets 2/3. If 3 candidates get over 15%, then 10, 6 and 4. If 2 candidates get over 15%, then 13 and 7.


In CO (36), Unspecified whether WTA or proportional. CO also does caucuses and the date is still moving. But all 36 delegates are considered „Unpledged“."

----------------------------------

And also from the August 16th post:

Open Primaries:


There are 17 states with open primaries, one with a semi-open primary and one that acts like an open primary (PA). Why? Well, in most of these cases, the states themselves do not do voter registration by party affiliation, so having a closed primary would be impossible, anyway. In PA, voters have the opportunity to de-register from one party and re-register for another party even just days ahead of an election. This was the state where Rush Limbaugh decided to start his „Operation Chaos“ in 2008, which will now probably come back to haunt the GOP in 2012, for in 18 states, the Democrats can now play the same game. In other words, Democrats can go vote in the Republican primaries in order to give the one or the other candidate an advantage and try to force a situation where the GOP will not be able to nominate on the first ballot come convention time. For instance, right at the get go, in SC, Democrats could really make a mess out of the race and deprive Perry of a much wanted win and rather, give the win to Michele Bachmann. GA would be an excellent example of a state where DEMS could come out in droves to push the race toward Bachmann, Perry or Romney, depending on their desires.




Here is how this looks on a map:







green = open primary
blue = semi-open primary (independents are allowed to vote in the GOP primary)
grey = closed primary


When I look at the first seven races of the GOP primary season, in chronological order,


WY County Conventions 01/07
SC Primary 01/21
NH Primary 01/24
FL Primary 01/31
AK District Conventions 02/07
IA Caucuses 02/06


I see built in structural advantages for all three major candidates: Romney, Bachmann and Perry."

-------------------------------

Hope that information helps.

Should the GOP calendar change, and this is always possible, then I will post updates.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: jackalope
Jun 2011
27,485
7,962
N/A
According to the information I have, the following states have Superdelegates who are pledged to go WTA for that state:

MO, NJ, WI, VT (actually, in VT there are no "Supers", so to speak), DE, UT.

6 states.

In CO, all delegates are considered "unpledged", irrespective of the primary results from 06/26/2012.
 

jackalope

Former Staff
Jan 2010
51,139
17,672
Maine
BTW, I want to alert you all to two threads I already started:

1.) I mentioned the GOP Superdelegate information first on August 16, 2011. Back then, Romney already had 4 Supers pledged to him. And Santorum's delegate had already pledged as well.

2.) A day before, on August 15th, I provided a pretty intensive analysis of the GOP nomination process, I encourage all to read it. Especially helpful may be this chart of all the primaries, chronologically, including each states rules for allocation and "bounding" at the convention. As soon as my new blog is up and running here at PH, I will be able to port such large charts (they chew up well over 100,000 characters), but for now, just go to my blogspot website and see it for youselves.

....

Cool stuff, bonn. You should add onto your threads, instead of making new ones. Then we can watch as things progress :)
 
Jun 2011
27,485
7,962
N/A
Update 10/14/11: Perry has picked up 2 more Superdelegates:

"GOP presidential hopeful and Texas Gov. Rick Perry has received the endorsement of Paul Senft, Florida National Committeeman to the Republican National Committee. -Orlando Sentinel."

"he presidential campaign of Texas Gov. Rick Perry has announced more than two dozen endorsements from Arkansas lawmakers and party officials.
...
Republican National Committee member Reta Hamilton and the local GOP chairmen in Ashley, Benton, Pulaski and Sebastian counties also endorsed Perry. -Arkansas Business"