Health care reform's fate to be determined by 2012

Jul 2011
Think the Supreme Court is the only place to watch for the future of health care reform?

You might want to read a few polls first.

As President Barack Obama’s reelection prospects fall, the health reform law’s chances of survival seem to fall, too.

So far, the Republicans’ efforts to repeal or defund the Affordable Care Act have been entirely symbolic; without control of the Senate or the White House, there’s not much they can actually do.

But now, with Democrats on the defensive in the Senate and Obama’s poll numbers tanking — 43 percent of those surveyed in a recent POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll said they definitely won’t vote for his reelection — the law’s opponents are beginning to think about repeal strategies that could get them to the finish line.

The supporters aren’t panicking — but they’re paying attention. “The prospects of the Affordable Care Act hinge totally on the 2012 elections,” said Ron Pollack, executive director of the health care consumer group Families USA. “If President Obama is reelected — and I’m fairly confident he will be, but that’s for others to judge — then the Affordable Care Act is going to move forward, pure and simple.”

That’s one scenario. But there are at least four others — each of which has major implications for the future of the health reform law and health care in America.

1. Obama loses, Republicans take the Senate by a lot: Health reform is toast

2. Obama loses, Republicans take the Senate by a little: Health reform loses big chunks

3. Obama wins, Republicans take the Senate: Health reform muddles through

4. Obama wins, Democrats keep the Senate: Health reform lives

read the author's explanations at: Health care reform's fate to be determined by 2012 - David Nather -
An interesting perspective, I'd say. In three of the four scenarios Obamacare is damaged or gone. In one scenario (a very unlikely scenario) Obamacare survives intact. Doesn't sound good for the Democrats.

Of course, this whole analysis could be moot if the Supremes dump Obamacare first.