How the Dems Win the Next Election

Babba

Former Staff
Jul 2007
79,030
71,573
So. Md.
This is a thought provoking thread. He makes some good points. He talks about how David Duke was defeated when he ran for the US Senate and for governor of LA. They found that simply running on the issues and policies normalized Duke. That's what would happen if the Dems do that with Trump.

1/ If the Dems blow this election it will not be because they were "too far left on policy" or because they "weren't left enough." It will have little to do with policy at all. They are making a mistake caused by traditional consultant theory that does not apply here...

2/ And by listening to influential pundits in liberal media who also don't get the unique nature of Trumpism, relative to normal political movements & campaigns...this election is NOT going to be won by talking about all your "great plans" for health care, jobs, education, etc..
Another good point he makes is that the Dems will NEVER win over the 40% who support Trump and they should be ignored as far as campaigning goes.

15/ In the Governor's race we dispensed w/ all that bullshit. We talked about Duke's ongoing Nazism and the moral/practical evil of his racist appeals. We discussed how that moral evil would have real world consequences (driving tourists and business away, rightly so, from LA)..

16/ Because it was wrong, and it was not who we wanted to be, and it was not who were were. We were better than that and needed to show the rest of the country that...

17/ Now, did this flip any of Duke's 1990 voters? Nah, not really. Indeed he got 65k MORE votes in the Governor's race than the Senate race. But it was never about flipping them. We knew that would be almost impossible...

18/ To flip Duke voters would require that they accept the fact that they had previously voted for a monster, and people are loath to do that. Our goal was not to flip them, but to DRIVE UP TURNOUT among the good folks, many of whom stayed home in 90...
26/ If anything, I would say crafting an argument that this is an existential crisis for the nation--and making it about Trump's bigotry and who we want to be as a country, would be far more effective in inspiring them to make up their minds...
Thread by @timjacobwise: "1/ If the Dems blow this election it will not be because they were "too far left on policy" or because they "weren't left enough." It will h […]"

I have to agree. The next election is about what we are as a nation. If the Dems can make people understand what it will mean to re-elect Donald Trump and make them understand the threat he is to what this country is supposed to about, they could increase turnout substantially, which is what they need to do to beat him.

I know some of you disagree and want to continue to pretend he's perfectly normal and there is nothing to be all worked up about. After the last week I don't know how you can continue to say that. Trump isn't playing three dimensional chess. What you see and hear from him is who he is. Normalizing him is the worst thing we can do. And pretending that he's normal is what you're doing by denying his racism and fascist tendencies.
 
Mar 2012
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New Hampshire
Turnout, turnout, turnout. I think thats the biggest challenge. As I have said all along, getting the far left progressives, the moderate left and the moderate NeverTrump voters to all agree on a candidate to vote for is the key. It could be framed as the article says as to "who we are as Americans." But we also have seen that doesnt always work. Some demand that "perfect candidate" or just wont be comfortable voting for certain candidates. I heard a local politician here saying "just get a cohesive vote together and beat Trump, then worry about the details." Some people loved that while others said they wont do that because their principles wont allow that.

I dont really see candidates normalizing him but some in the media do. Others also focus on stupid little things he does instead of the bigger issues. Which leads to that "oh they are just out to get him" rationale. Its certainly a thin balance on this. But yes the 40% will love him no matter what.
 
Mar 2012
60,565
41,895
New Hampshire
Also wanted to add that single issue voters pose a problem as well. Those that only vote pro life or for the courts wont be persuaded no matter what. I have personally heard people say "oh I loathe Trump and hate voting for him but he puts the right people on the courts." Also anybody that might feel the Ds threaten their way of life, coal, steel, fossil fuel workers etc. So thats going to be impossible to fight off. Also, I think we as a country have to realize that racism has blown wide open under Trump. There are many people who may have grown up in racist households and may harbor lingering feelings. They dont consider themselves racist at all, but hear Trumps rhetoric and really dont see too much wrong with it. Others are quiet about it and privately agree. These are the people who we cant count in polls because we dont know how they think. In a secret ballot, they are free to vote as they choose.
 

Babba

Former Staff
Jul 2007
79,030
71,573
So. Md.
Also wanted to add that single issue voters pose a problem as well. Those that only vote pro life or for the courts wont be persuaded no matter what. I have personally heard people say "oh I loathe Trump and hate voting for him but he puts the right people on the courts." Also anybody that might feel the Ds threaten their way of life, coal, steel, fossil fuel workers etc. So thats going to be impossible to fight off. Also, I think we as a country have to realize that racism has blown wide open under Trump. There are many people who may have grown up in racist households and may harbor lingering feelings. They dont consider themselves racist at all, but hear Trumps rhetoric and really dont see too much wrong with it. Others are quiet about it and privately agree. These are the people who we cant count in polls because we dont know how they think. In a secret ballot, they are free to vote as they choose.
But I think most of those people are part of the 40%. They either agree with his racism or they don't care about it because they think they're going to get their coal mining job back or they get their judges. I don't think the Dems should worry about winning them over. They can't. I think they should talk about inclusiveness and how this is a nation built on immigration and what the founders intended and that Trump is opposed to all of that and then the Dems should get enough votes to beat him. 40% of the country is lost and it will be a while before they find their way home, if they do at all.
 
Jan 2007
40,595
9,835
Turnout, turnout, turnout. I think thats the biggest challenge. As I have said all along, getting the far left progressives, the moderate left and the moderate NeverTrump voters to all agree on a candidate to vote for is the key. It could be framed as the article says as to "who we are as Americans." But we also have seen that doesnt always work. Some demand that "perfect candidate" or just wont be comfortable voting for certain candidates. I heard a local politician here saying "just get a cohesive vote together and beat Trump, then worry about the details." Some people loved that while others said they wont do that because their principles wont allow that.

I dont really see candidates normalizing him but some in the media do. Others also focus on stupid little things he does instead of the bigger issues. Which leads to that "oh they are just out to get him" rationale. Its certainly a thin balance on this. But yes the 40% will love him no matter what.

The republicans just need to show the policies the democrats propose ,, many so vile , the epic pandering, the racial game they play, endless social justice. Transfer of wealth,
 
Jan 2007
40,595
9,835
But I think most of those people are part of the 40%. They either agree with his racism or they don't care about it because they think they're going to get their coal mining job back or they get their judges. I don't think the Dems should worry about winning them over. They can't. I think they should talk about inclusiveness and how this is a nation built on immigration and what the founders intended and that Trump is opposed to all of that and then the Dems should get enough votes to beat him. 40% of the country is lost and it will be a while before they find their way home, if they do at all.
Your ridiculous immigration is what put Trump in office. More American cities turn into Little Mogadishu's.
 
Mar 2012
60,565
41,895
New Hampshire
But I think most of those people are part of the 40%. They either agree with his racism or they don't care about it because they think they're going to get their coal mining job back or they get their judges. I don't think the Dems should worry about winning them over. They can't. I think they should talk about inclusiveness and how this is a nation built on immigration and what the founders intended and that Trump is opposed to all of that and then the Dems should get enough votes to beat him. 40% of the country is lost and it will be a while before they find their way home, if they do at all.
If I had to guess, I would say we have around 40% of the country that will vote for Trump no matter what, 40% who loathe him and will refuse to vote for him no matter what. That leaves 20% of others who are unsure. Some may be conservatives who could see themselves voting for Biden but certainly not Warren or Sanders. Others may just be apolitical and not care. I also remember in 2016 a lot of voters saying "well I live in a red state so my vote never matters anyway." Those might be the voters to focus on, those who think they are outnumbered but might not be if turnout is high. Georgia, North Carolina etc. We also of course are going to face bots and online interference spreading fake news so that could cost a few votes as well.
 
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Jan 2007
40,595
9,835
If I had to guess, I would say we have around 40% of the country that will vote for Trump no matter what, 40% who loathe him and will refuse to vote for him no matter what. That leaves 20% of others who are unsure. Some may be conservatives who could see themselves voting for Biden but certainly not Warren or Sanders. Others may just be apolitical and not care. I also remember in 2016 a lot of voters saying "well I live in a red state so my vote never matters anyway." Those might be the voters to focus on, those who think they are outnumbered but might not be if turnout is high. Georgia, North Carolina etc. We also of course are going to face bots and online interference spreading fake news so that could cost a few votes as well.
Yes Google and Facebook regulating data searches in favor of democrats. They admit they don't want another Trump event like 2016.
 

Babba

Former Staff
Jul 2007
79,030
71,573
So. Md.
Your ridiculous immigration is what put Trump in office. More American cities turn into Little Mogadishu's.
The problem was that the Dems didn't fight back hard enough against his racist rhetoric and Hillary mostly ran on the issues. Her wonkishness was part of the reason she lost. The Dems need to hit back at Trump on his anti-immigration crap and remind people that we are a nation of immigrants and it's part of what has made us what we are and why we accomplished so much in the 19th and 20th centuries. They can remind people how the italians and Irish and Chinese were treated at one time and how we're doing the same to Central Americans and Muslims now. Most Americans disagree with Trump. And the Dems just need to make people know that the next election is a referendum on what kind of country we're going to be. I know what my choice is.