If Trump is on the ballot in 2020.....he and his party will lose in a landslide.

Jan 2016
57,339
54,126
Colorado
#41
It certainly is, but there's no bottom. Nothing Trump could say or do to turn his followers against him.

Unless the economy tanks, I predict he'll run again and I fear he'll be re-elected.
The deep irony here is that Trump's own policies may very well succeed in tanking the economy by mid-2020. Even if we are not in a recession by then, I think economic growth may have well slowed to a CRAWL, of less than 1% annual Real GDP Growth, which will certainly FEEL like a recession to millions and millions of Americans.

It is HIGHLY doubtful that the American economy will be looking as strong in August 2020 as it is in August 2019...….
 
Likes: Madeline
Mar 2012
57,873
39,432
New Hampshire
#42
I agree that by the time the third debate is over, the field will be dramatically narrowed, to no MORE than eight remaining candidates. I don't necessarily agree that the top five now are destined to remain the top five. I think at least one of the so-called second-tier candidates will grab more attention from Democratic voters, and perhaps replace one of the current top five------Bernie Sanders has been consistently dropping in the polls for some months now, you know.

I certainly HOPE the current top five are not the last top five, and I believe you have a good understanding of the kind of more moderate Democratic candidates I would tend to favor.
I am with you with your hopes. But I just dont see it. I still see a solid top 4 (Biden, Harris, Warren, Sanders) and then the 5th potentially the wildcard. Someone just told me Yang is trending with college kids because he is "relate able." I was just posting in another thread that it is such a shame that there is at least 5-8 low polling candidates that could have growth potential but because Biden is considered "safe" they arent even looked at. Also that with so many in the field they have to narrow the debates sooner than normal. We all remember in 2008 Hillary was far ahead of Obama until the third debate when he broke out. But if they cant get in, they cant compete. It is a bit cruel. Its sad that those like Klobuchar, Hickenlooper, Bullock will be relegated to the same fate as Williamson and DeBlasio who really arent serious candidates.
 
Likes: Madeline
Jun 2014
61,601
35,932
Cleveland, Ohio
#43
The deep irony here is that Trump's own policies may very well succeed in tanking the economy by mid-2020. Even if we are not in a recession by then, I think economic growth may have well slowed to a CRAWL, of less than 1% annual Real GDP Growth, which will certainly FEEL like a recession to millions and millions of Americans.

It is HIGHLY doubtful that the American economy will be looking as strong in August 2020 as it is in August 2019...….
I think it would take a fairly severe recession PLUS high unemployment PLUS hyperinflation to alter Trump's chances. I don't foresee that and don't hope it will happen.
 
Jan 2016
57,339
54,126
Colorado
#44
I am with you with your hopes. But I just dont see it. I still see a solid top 4 (Biden, Harris, Warren, Sanders) and then the 5th potentially the wildcard. Someone just told me Yang is trending with college kids because he is "relate able." I was just posting in another thread that it is such a shame that there is at least 5-8 low polling candidates that could have growth potential but because Biden is considered "safe" they arent even looked at. Also that with so many in the field they have to narrow the debates sooner than normal. We all remember in 2008 Hillary was far ahead of Obama until the third debate when he broke out. But if they cant get in, they cant compete. It is a bit cruel. Its sad that those like Klobuchar, Hickenlooper, Bullock will be relegated to the same fate as Williamson and DeBlasio who really arent serious candidates.
Klobuchar and Yang at least have earned a spot in the second debate, which is now up to nine candidates.....and there is still time for a few more to qualify. Suppose an even dozen candidates end up qualifying for that second debate------would that lead them to once again split it into two debates, with say six candidates in each debate? I would hope they would do that, rather than trying to have a debate with TWELVE candidates on the stage!

I persist in thinking that Bernie Sanders will NOT be in the final top five. And with every Joe Biden gaffe, he is going to be viewed as less 'safe'.

Too EARLY to pick the Final Top Five, in my opinion, although I am sure that Warren and Harris will be there, and probably Biden.
 
Jan 2016
57,339
54,126
Colorado
#45
I think it would take a fairly severe recession PLUS high unemployment PLUS hyperinflation to alter Trump's chances. I don't foresee that and don't hope it will happen.
Unemployment is certainly not going to surge from its current very low level of 3.7% to (say) 10%, or even 8%, in just over a year. A resounding stock market crash is far more likely. And that would certainly affect Americans' impressions of Donald Trump as supposedly being a great manager of the American economy. A big stock market crash would almost certainly trigger a very large decline in consumer confidence, as well-----which has actually not risen, at ALL, since Trump became President.

And almost no one is worried about hyperinflation in today's economic environment. Far from it. Savvy investors are more concerned about deflation setting in, which was the same overriding fear we had back in 2009-2011, and is why bond yields are collapsing in the past several weeks. [If people were worried about inflation, those interest rates would be RISING, not falling.]
 
Likes: Madeline

Singularity

Former Staff
Oct 2009
33,034
27,373
Kansas
#46
You have utterly no idea what you are talking about. In fact, recession fears are growing substantially with the intensifying trade war with China, which has now morphed into an even more dangerous currency war. The bond markets have literally been SCREAMING recession for several months now, with inverted yield curves, and not just here in America. Add the rapidly growing risk of a no-deal BREXIT in less than three months, and the outlook for the global economy.....AND the American economy.....is turning decidedly negative.

US recession fears are growing, survey of economists finds - CNN
It makes me so mad. Recessions are always going to happen, we've just had the right amount of luck, resources and good psychology among investors.

Especially in this type of feel-good environment (or what has been one), it should be the top priority of the U.S. government to not take unnecessary risks that could conceivably hasten a recession. Trump has been warned that a trade war might do this every step of the way, and yet he has continued onward,

A) Because he is (probably*) too wealthy to be seriously damaged by a recession, and so are all his Mar-a-Lago friends, so it doesn't matter to him
B) He is too stupid and arrogant to seriously contemplate what a recession means for the country or how he could trigger one as president
C) He appears to genuinely believe basic untruths about tariffs, such as the notion that they are not a tax and that they penalize China only
D) No GOP power brokers are prepared to stand up for their own self-interest before it's too late; they can't afford another recession on their watch
E) The media takes blatantly false presentations about this issue at face value, and just presents them alongside (sometimes, even without) actual facts**
F) Fuck fuck fuck, fuck all of this shit***.

_ _ _ _ _
* Grants the notion that Trump is actually a billionaire and not a complete fabrication who has much greater debt than real property
** Among all journalists qualified to report on financial news, only Ali Velshi, his colleague Stephanie Ruhle and NPR's Kai Ryssdal have consistently refused to even contemplate that the president might be behaving in an above-board, honest manner in his claim that tariffs are not a penalty on Americans. The rest either "both sides" it, refuse to explicitly state that Trump is telling falsehoods about basic realities, or allow Trump to use their ink/space/air for unfiltered propaganda
*** I mean, seriously. This is fucked up.
 
Last edited:
Jan 2016
57,339
54,126
Colorado
#47
It makes me so mad. Recessions are always going to happen, we've just had the right amount of luck, resources and good psychology among investors.

Especially in this type of feel-good environment (or what has been one), it should be the top priority of the U.S. government to not take unnecessary risks that could conceivably hasten a recession. Trump has been warned that a trade war might do this every step of the way, and yet he has continued onward,

A) Because he is (probably*) too wealthy to be seriously damaged by a recession, and so are all his Mar-a-Lago friends, so it doesn't matter to him
B) He is too stupid and arrogant to seriously contemplate what a recession means for the country or how he could trigger one as president
C) He appears to genuinely believe basic untruths about tariffs, such as the notion that they are not a tax and that they penalize China only
D) No GOP power brokers are prepared to stand up for their own self-interest before it's too late; they can't afford another recession on their watch
E) The media takes blatantly false presentations about this issue at face value, and just presents them alongside (sometimes, even without) actual facts**
F) Fuck fuck fuck, fuck all of this shit***.

_ _ _ _ _
* Grants the notion that Trump is actually a billionaire and not a complete fabrication who has much greater debt than real property
** Among all journalists qualified to report on financial news, only Ali Velshi, his colleague Stephanie Ruhle and NPR's Kai Ryssdal have consistently refused to even contemplate that the president might be behaving in an above-board, honest manner in his claim that tariffs are not a penalty on Americans
*** I mean, seriously. This is fucked up.
(B) and (C) are particularly true. Trump is simply a complete ignoramus on the subject of international trade and tariffs. On his recent visit to the UK, he was claiming that Britain is America's largest trading partner, which is not even remotely close to being true.

I'd be interested in hearing more about what Ali Velahi, Stephanie Ruhle and Kay Ryssdal have had to say regarding Trump's incorrect beliefs regarding tariffs. Alas, I don't often get the chance to listen to NPR.

I don't understand (D). I mean, I don't understand why Republican leaders aren't waking up to the fact that Trump's policies could very well TRIGGER the next recession, and that, as you say, another recession starting on the GOP's watch would, well, start to look like a PATTERN......
 
Likes: Madeline

Singularity

Former Staff
Oct 2009
33,034
27,373
Kansas
#48
(B) and (C) are particularly true. Trump is simply a complete ignoramus on the subject of international trade and tariffs. On his recent visit to the UK, he was claiming that Britain is America's largest trading partner, which is not even remotely close to being true.
Right, not even if the reverse is true. The EU is Britain's biggest trading partner, and even if they crash out of the EU in two months (which isn't going to happen, they will most likely still be a member this time next year), it will still be. He just makes stuff up as he goes along, he doesn't know if it's true or not, he doesn't care.

I'd be interested in hearing more about what Ali Velahi, Stephanie Ruhle and Kay Ryssdal have had to say regarding Trump's incorrect beliefs regarding tariffs. Alas, I don't often get the chance to listen to NPR.
Velshi and Ruhle have repeatedly curb-stomped Trump administration representatives and supporters on their MSNBC show.

Ryssdal took Mnuchin to task not too long ago. That being said, he hasn't had many opportunities, Trump administration people have been unwilling to go on radio shows (even conservative talk radio) because the boss cares not for what they say there, if it's not on TV it doesn't matter. So he settles for fairly calm and collected statements of fact on the air and wild-eyed angry denunciations of this shit on Twitter. The contrast is fun to watch.

I don't understand (D). I mean, I don't understand why Republican leaders aren't waking up to the fact that Trump's policies could very well TRIGGER the next recession, and that, as you say, another recession starting on the GOP's watch would, well, start to look like a PATTERN......
There appears to be a serious plague of careerism and personal cowardice infesting the GOP at this time. Trump has so consistently turned like a mad dog on even the slightest internal criticism, and he has been so consistently effective at either ending a given Republican's career or forcing them to become his lapdog (a la Lindsey Graham) to stay alive, that they don't think about the threats on the longterm horizon. It's all about getting through the day. Those with foresight are retiring.
 
Mar 2012
57,873
39,432
New Hampshire
#49
(B) and (C) are particularly true. Trump is simply a complete ignoramus on the subject of international trade and tariffs. On his recent visit to the UK, he was claiming that Britain is America's largest trading partner, which is not even remotely close to being true.

I'd be interested in hearing more about what Ali Velahi, Stephanie Ruhle and Kay Ryssdal have had to say regarding Trump's incorrect beliefs regarding tariffs. Alas, I don't often get the chance to listen to NPR.

I don't understand (D). I mean, I don't understand why Republican leaders aren't waking up to the fact that Trump's policies could very well TRIGGER the next recession, and that, as you say, another recession starting on the GOP's watch would, well, start to look like a PATTERN......
So how does Trump stand on a stage with Warren (if she ends up the nominee) and distinguish himself? They both have similar views on trade and tariffs! People arent paying attention at all to that. She was on stage in Iowa yesterday touting tariffs and promising no TPP or anything like it. The farmers interviewed said thats why they liked Trump because he would play "hardball" with China. Its all gone nuts.
 
Jan 2016
57,339
54,126
Colorado
#50
So how does Trump stand on a stage with Warren (if she ends up the nominee) and distinguish himself? They both have similar views on trade and tariffs! People arent paying attention at all to that. She was on stage in Iowa yesterday touting tariffs and promising no TPP or anything like it. The farmers interviewed said thats why they liked Trump because he would play "hardball" with China. Its all gone nuts.
Oh, Trump would STILL work very hard to portray Warren as a socialist, and with her support for Medicare for All, and the Green New Deal, that would likely not be hard to do. He would also keep calling her 'Pocahontas', to appeal to his base. He would portray her as being "shrill", which I myself called her, and was lectured about the 'sexism' of that by some other posters. Yet the image sticks, that she is so frenetic in her speeches that she is always about 30 seconds away from a complete mental breakdown. She DOES have weaknesses that Trump would exploit.