It May Be Too Late for LGBT People - The SCOTUS Event Horizon

Dec 2006
8,658
10,691
required field
#1
Bad, bad things are coming down the pipeline. And guess who's first on the "what goes around comes around" payback list in the LGBT community? If you guessed trans people, give yourself a prize.

Stop for a moment. Imagine how bad it will be with a conservative Supreme Court ruling on a host of issues related to LGBT people in America.

The reality is that what’s coming is way worse than anything you just imagined. In fact, the moment Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed, we pass through an event horizon, which is a physics term for a point of no return where not even light can escape the gravity well of a black hole. Once he’s seated, there is literally nothing we can legally do to stop the torrent of decisions that will relegate LGBT people to permanent, codified, second class status. It will be even worse for transgender people, who may not even be able to function in public after these decisions.

There’s three things that people need to realize about what will make this court different from previous courts.

The first is that anti-LGBT religious groups like the Alliance Defending Freedom and the Liberty Counsel are already pushing through numerous cases designed to do all of the horrible things enumerate below. They will be taking these cases to a SCOTUS that wants to take their cases, and wants to find for them.

And they will find for them, even if their arguments are incoherent or seemingly irreconcilable with other decisions made by SCOTUS. The death of the need for intellectual consistency by the court was demonstrated in the 2018 rulings in Masterpiece Cakeshop and Trump v. Hawaii. In these, the court essentially simultaneously found that even a whiff of religious bias by governmental officials was completely impermissible, unless it’s the President and he does it before he gets elected.

Finally, readers need to understand that the court will not care what the effects of their rulings are. This was clearly demonstrated in the Hobby Lobby oral arguments. When the lawyer for Hobby Lobby was confronted with the absolute chaos that would surely follow (and did) if corporations could ignore laws based on the religious beliefs of the owners, he replied, “Look, you’ve got to trust the courts; just because free exercise claims are being brought doesn’t mean that the courts can’t separate the sheep from the goats.”

The Roberts Court accepted this argument that it was acceptable for rulings to cause massive problems down the road. This means that even if a SCOTUS ruling were to make it impossible for transgender people to hold a job, or function in society at all, as a downstream effect of their decision, it is not their problem. They would leave it to other courts to sort out what to do. Those courts would in turn shrug their shoulders and say, it doesn’t matter how awful this ruling is for transgender people, we have to follow it.

You know how I told you the consequences were worse than you could imagine? They get even worse than that if Trump gets to nominate another justice to replace Ginsburg or Breyer. It gets even worse than that if he gets a second term, and has the opportunity to issue a bunch of anti-LGBT executive orders that SCOTUS will uphold as constitutional.

You also have to remember that while it will take 5-10 years for all of these rulings to happen, reversing them will take another 20 to 75 years based on how long it took to reverse horrible cases such as Plessy v. Ferguson (75 years), Lochner v. New York (32 years), Korematsu v. United States (74 years), and Bowers v. Hardwick (18 years). The odds are, if you’re reading this, you will not live to see all the damage that’s coming in the courts undone. Most of these things will happen regardless of how the 2018 or 2020 elections go, because that 5-4 conservative majority will be in place for years.

All the legal and legislative progress made since Stonewall will be rendered moot in the next 10 years, there’s probably nothing we can do to stop it, and it will take decades, at a minimum, to get it back.

Here’s what we’re in for, specifically.

.... (more detailed analysis at link)
The SCOTUS Event Horizon for the LGBT Movement

It's just a blog post, not some major news site, but I'm afraid this is exactly how things are going to go in the next few years. As wealth concentrates ever more at the top, as resources dwindle and natural disasters increase in frequency, the Trumpeteers are going to need more and more segments of society to blame and punish. We'll be long gone by then.

When 45 was elected, I felt shell shocked and devastated for days afterwards. Now I just feel numb. Of course this is happening. This was always going to happen. There is no avoiding it now. Elections won't matter. America is too enamored with its own cruelty and likes what it sees in the mirror right now.
 
Jul 2013
1,306
1,742
U.S.A.
#2
Bad, bad things are coming down the pipeline. And guess who's first on the "what goes around comes around" payback list in the LGBT community? If you guessed trans people, give yourself a prize.

The SCOTUS Event Horizon for the LGBT Movement

It's just a blog post, not some major news site, but I'm afraid this is exactly how things are going to go in the next few years. As wealth concentrates ever more at the top, as resources dwindle and natural disasters increase in frequency, the Trumpeteers are going to need more and more segments of society to blame and punish. We'll be long gone by then.

When 45 was elected, I felt shell shocked and devastated for days afterwards. Now I just feel numb. Of course this is happening. This was always going to happen. There is no avoiding it now. Elections won't matter. America is too enamored with its own cruelty and likes what it sees in the mirror right now.
I have to agree that we're going to see a concerted effort to chip away at a whole host of landmark civil rights victories in the near future. It's already happening and the pace is likely to accelerate. The folks who cried so loudly about the evils of "legislating from the bench" will, as usual, do exactly what they railed against and will try to take it farther than anyone would have thought reasonable just a few short years ago.

I could quibble with some of the specific predictions made in the linked article, but I won't. On balance it's spot on.

Now, I do disagree with the author's contention that it's likely to take decades to undo the damage that's coming. To believe that requires one to assume that our government and legal system will continue functioning in the future more or less the way it has for the better part of a century. I don't think that's likely to be the case. Ironically, most of the folks who believe they're "winning" now by cynically manipulating the levers of power are in reality hastening the day when they will be discredited and disempowered.

Shifting demographics, radically different economic realities, the enormous global challenges presented by a rapidly changing climate... None of these things can be wished away or even significantly slowed by voter suppression, gerrymandering, a system that favors rural voters, or reliably-partisan courts. History tells us that minority governments can sustain themselves for a while, but they always fall eventually. And when they fall, they usually fall hard. A minority of folks are betting that if they break our current system, they can remake it into something they like, something that will favor their interests at the expense of the majority. It's a bet they're overwhelmingly likely to lose.

We might call those folks suckers, eh?

Cheers.

C
 
Jun 2018
1,175
175
US
#3
Bad, bad things are coming down the pipeline. And guess who's first on the "what goes around comes around" payback list in the LGBT community? If you guessed trans people, give yourself a prize.



The SCOTUS Event Horizon for the LGBT Movement

It's just a blog post, not some major news site, but I'm afraid this is exactly how things are going to go in the next few years. As wealth concentrates ever more at the top, as resources dwindle and natural disasters increase in frequency, the Trumpeteers are going to need more and more segments of society to blame and punish. We'll be long gone by then.

When 45 was elected, I felt shell shocked and devastated for days afterwards. Now I just feel numb. Of course this is happening. This was always going to happen. There is no avoiding it now. Elections won't matter. America is too enamored with its own cruelty and likes what it sees in the mirror right now.
Ok what are you doing about it? This is what happens when you legislate through the court system.

Put people in Congress that have a backbone to stand up to not just the conservative establishment but the left. Get some new blood in there. Demand term limits so they dont go to Washington and dig in like a tick.

The left sold you a dream that the courts would take care of these issues so they would not have to do there job.

Hell... get involved start local run for office.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 
Likes: Blueneck
Jan 2014
16,453
4,387
California
#4
Bad, bad things are coming down the pipeline. And guess who's first on the "what goes around comes around" payback list in the LGBT community? If you guessed trans people, give yourself a prize.



The SCOTUS Event Horizon for the LGBT Movement

It's just a blog post, not some major news site, but I'm afraid this is exactly how things are going to go in the next few years. As wealth concentrates ever more at the top, as resources dwindle and natural disasters increase in frequency, the Trumpeteers are going to need more and more segments of society to blame and punish. We'll be long gone by then.

When 45 was elected, I felt shell shocked and devastated for days afterwards. Now I just feel numb. Of course this is happening. This was always going to happen. There is no avoiding it now. Elections won't matter. America is too enamored with its own cruelty and likes what it sees in the mirror right now.
Ladies and Gentleman,

please welcome "rabid paranoia" to our stage!
 
Sep 2012
14,038
17,755
SoCal
#8
Bad, bad things are coming down the pipeline. And guess who's first on the "what goes around comes around" payback list in the LGBT community? If you guessed trans people, give yourself a prize.

The SCOTUS Event Horizon for the LGBT Movement

It's just a blog post, not some major news site, but I'm afraid this is exactly how things are going to go in the next few years. As wealth concentrates ever more at the top, as resources dwindle and natural disasters increase in frequency, the Trumpeteers are going to need more and more segments of society to blame and punish. We'll be long gone by then.

When 45 was elected, I felt shell shocked and devastated for days afterwards. Now I just feel numb. Of course this is happening. This was always going to happen. There is no avoiding it now. Elections won't matter. America is too enamored with its own cruelty and likes what it sees in the mirror right now.
Cruelty to children, like this, is happening now. Even "way back", when I was in elementary school, children were not segregated by sex in "disaster drills", and isolating one child from safety, and from her peers, is extreme cruelty. How can anyone justify this?

A transgender girl was barred from taking shelter in her school locker rooms during a safety drill because teachers couldn’t decide which one she should go in
 
Last edited:
Dec 2006
8,658
10,691
required field
#10
And the march backwards continues. Some of us will be forced to stay in our homes, or try to leave the country altogether. Assuming we can get passports. I hear Canada accepts LGBT refugees. I wonder if they'll continue to do so, or close down the border to avoid provoking the U.S.?

Laugh if you want to, but these are serious questions. You might not be thinking about them, but a lot of us are. You may not be aware the extent of the radicalization that is occuring with queer people right now. I am. And I'm one of the few voices of restraint right now, and I'm catching heat for it.

And if it's not safe for us, it's not safe for you, either. You just haven't realized it yet. You're not on their list. Yet. You will be. That's the thing about those lists of undesirables, they always get bigger. There's always another group that needs to be gotten rid of. Your turn will come around, that's the one thing you can bet on. It happens repeatedly throughout history.

It is nearly certain, in my view, that marriage equality will be reduced to a state-dependent guarantee of a marriage certificate and a death certificate with both names on it and few, if any, of marriage’s other rights. Reparative therapy bans could be struck down as unconstitutional burdens on free speech. Nondiscrimination laws protecting LGBTQ people nationwide could be negated by constitutionally protected religious rights to discriminate. The de facto ban on transgender troops will be upheld.

The ADF is also pressing hard for the courts to find that transgender-inclusive policies in public accommodations like bathrooms and locker rooms create an inherently hostile environment, in violation of Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act and Title IX. The organization’s goal appears to be to create a nationwide ban on transgender people in all gender-segregated facilities. With the current court, it is hard to envision a scenario where the ADF does not succeed.

And these are just the near-term scenarios. If Trump gets re-elected or a third conservative nominee is confirmed to the Supreme Court, it could get much worse. For example, the Family Research Council has been agitating for the administration to bring back “don’t ask, don’t tell” for lesbian and gay service members, which it could potentially do legally if the transgender ban is upheld. By invoking Justice Antonin Scalia’s language in his dissent in Lawrence v. Texas of morality being the basis for law, Attorney General Jeff Sessions has made veiled gestures to the ADF that seem to support reversing the case, which overturned sodomy laws in the U.S. in 2003. Currently, 12 states still have unenforceable sodomy laws on the books, and one in four Americans (presumably Trump’s base) want homosexual sex to be illegal again.
With the Courts and Government Turned Against LGBTQ People, It’s Time to Start Thinking Like Insurgents