Orange County Now Majority Democrat

HayJenn

Moderator
Jul 2014
70,035
60,036
CA
#11
The decline of the California GOP is nearly complete, as the reddest part of the West Coast has gone blue: In Reagan's California, Democrats take a majority

This is simply the result of the same demographic and political forces that the GOP has been warning itself about since before 2012 and the "autopsy" white paper that followed. The current GOP is following Trump to have a stronger and stronger hold on a smaller and smaller portion of American voters.

Californians are simply not much interested in most of the policies and rhetoric that hold the center of the party nationally. We want different things than the national party is offering. The CA state party might offer something popular on its own, but it's still tied to Trump's GOP, and that's literally killing the party here.

The question is whether California is a harbinger for the rest of the nation, as it has been so many times before. CA Republicans have given up and they hope that big electoral wins elsewhere will bring California back to the conservative fold. It seems to me that 2020 will be highly competitive but a sea change in the direction of the GOP seems highly unlikely.

At some point the GOP will have to remake itself. Maybe Dems will make that easy by following young activists hard to the left. That would allow the GOP to become the break on leftward movement that it was for so many years, back before Gingrich. Let's hope, for the sake of American politics, that they can manage to provide a counterbalance to the Dems here in the future. Every American state needs and deserves (at least) two healthy political parties that speak to the needs of citizens.

BTW, I live in a very conservative part of the state. Republicans can still get elected in the rural farm and mountain areas of California. But losing Orange County (particularly with so many defections this long before the primaries) doesn't look good.
Yep. Lived in OC for a good portion of my life. Grew up there. It was just a matter of time, due to the demographics, that would go blue. And for the first time in a long time, it did, in 2016. Much of that IMO had to do with the fact that most GOP members in that area were VERY CONSERVATIVE.

I also live in a conservative area now - but I don't think it AS conservative as OC was just a mere 10 years ago
 
Feb 2010
34,651
24,582
between Moon and NYC
#12
The decline of the California GOP is nearly complete, as the reddest part of the West Coast has gone blue: In Reagan's California, Democrats take a majority

This is simply the result of the same demographic and political forces that the GOP has been warning itself about since before 2012 and the "autopsy" white paper that followed. The current GOP is following Trump to have a stronger and stronger hold on a smaller and smaller portion of American voters.

Californians are simply not much interested in most of the policies and rhetoric that hold the center of the party nationally. We want different things than the national party is offering. The CA state party might offer something popular on its own, but it's still tied to Trump's GOP, and that's literally killing the party here.

The question is whether California is a harbinger for the rest of the nation, as it has been so many times before. CA Republicans have given up and they hope that big electoral wins elsewhere will bring California back to the conservative fold. It seems to me that 2020 will be highly competitive but a sea change in the direction of the GOP seems highly unlikely.

At some point the GOP will have to remake itself. Maybe Dems will make that easy by following young activists hard to the left. That would allow the GOP to become the break on leftward movement that it was for so many years, back before Gingrich. Let's hope, for the sake of American politics, that they can manage to provide a counterbalance to the Dems here in the future. Every American state needs and deserves (at least) two healthy political parties that speak to the needs of citizens.

BTW, I live in a very conservative part of the state. Republicans can still get elected in the rural farm and mountain areas of California. But losing Orange County (particularly with so many defections this long before the primaries) doesn't look good.

Not particularly surprising.

Changing demographics in conjunction with the often toxic behavior/personality of Donald Trump.


But California does have it's own progressive challenges. Rich economy bolstered by tremendous natural resources. Balancing that with limits on just how generous it can be with an immensely diverse culture/population. Not an easy task. Lots of debt.





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Mar 2019
3,285
1,687
"US" of A
#13
Not particularly surprising.

Changing demographics in conjunction with the often toxic behavior/personality of Donald Trump.


But California does have it's own progressive challenges. Rich economy bolstered by tremendous natural resources. Balancing that with limits on just how generous it can be with an immensely diverse culture/population. Not an easy task. Lots of debt.





..
How else can we control folks without debt?
 
Jul 2013
40,350
26,442
On a happy trail
#15
Not particularly surprising.

Changing demographics in conjunction with the often toxic behavior/personality of Donald Trump.


But California does have it's own progressive challenges. Rich economy bolstered by tremendous natural resources. Balancing that with limits on just how generous it can be with an immensely diverse culture/population. Not an easy task. Lots of debt.





..
If only we were not required to support the deadbeat "taker" states maybe we could get rid of some of this debt.
 
Jun 2014
49,403
50,276
United States
#16
At some point the GOP will have to remake itself. Maybe Dems will make that easy by following young activists hard to the left. That would allow the GOP to become the break on leftward movement that it was for so many years, back before Gingrich. Let's hope, for the sake of American politics, that they can manage to provide a counterbalance to the Dems here in the future. Every American state needs and deserves (at least) two healthy political parties that speak to the needs of citizens.

That role need not necessarily be filled by the GOP. It's been a long time since a major political party bit the dust in the US, but it could certainly happen again. It wouldn't surprise me if a left wing party rose to challenge the Democrats, leaving them as the standard bearers for more moderate/conservative voters.
 

Rasselas

Former Staff
Feb 2010
70,961
47,800
USA
#18
Not particularly surprising.

Changing demographics in conjunction with the often toxic behavior/personality of Donald Trump.


But California does have it's own progressive challenges. Rich economy bolstered by tremendous natural resources. Balancing that with limits on just how generous it can be with an immensely diverse culture/population. Not an easy task. Lots of debt.
According to Forbes, we're in the black: No, California's Finances Are Not Back In Black

Two caveats with that. One is that pension debt (which is the results of a lot of state services not involving giving away money but with employing people) is off-books. The other is that California's economy (like all of the West) is cyclical by nature and our tax system exaggerates that effect on state revenues. But I doubt you'll see the GOP suggesting we raise taxes on things like real estate in order to lower them on capital gains or income at high levels.
 
Likes: Panzareta
Dec 2006
89,206
68,547
In the Witness Protection Program
#20
True but thats where Trumps "Reality tv" comes in handy. He is great at getting a good photo op. Having all those miners and steel workers at his PA rally a week before the 2016 election was brilliant. Then to top it all off, Hillary was with Beyonce and Trump told the workers "I would rather be here with you." Worked well.
And he’s done jack shit for them since.