Pollwatch XIII: various but important

Jun 2011
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September 29, 2011

PPP just put out a presidential poll for Florida, which I will post separately. But there was an extra question:

Q13 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme.”

Agree 25%

Disagree 63%
Not sure 12%

So, by a whalloping 38% margin, Floridians are saying that SS is NOT a Ponzi Scheme.
I think this is important of the context of Florida as

1.) a battleground state with now 29 electors.
2.) a state with a large elderly population.

Oh, and btw, Obama does not have a Jewish problem in Florida, which not only has a heavy retired population, but also a heavy jewish population. From Dean Debnam:

"Although he's in a lot of trouble in the state one thing Obama does not appear to have in Florida is a Jewish problem. Although it's a small sample he leads Perry by an 82-2 margin and Romney by a 78-11 spread with them. His overall approval with Jewish voters is 76/20 and specifically on the issue of Israel he's at 61/31 with Jews."

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WAPO and PEW just released a poll about our american society's "haves" and "have nots".

First, here is a link to the WAPO article.
And here are the complete poll results.

And here is the graphic from the WAPO website that puts the numbers in clear view:



The difference is stark: Obama is by 45% of respondents as treating both "haves" and "have nots" equally. And for those who think otherwise, 29% think he is more for the "have nots" while 15% think he is for the "haves", a 14% difference.

But the GOP is viewed much more strongly as being for the "haves": by 47% for the "haves" to just 7% for the "have nots", a whalloping 40% difference.

As Greg Sergeant noted on his PLUM LINE website:

"This polling all took place after Obama embarked on his new quest to sell his jobs plan and his call for tax hikes on the wealthy to the American people — and during a period in which the national debate over his alleged “class warfare” has been in full swing.

Obama has taken great pains to rebut the claim that his call for tax hikes on the rich is about envy and pitting the classes against one another, instead framing it as an argument about national unity and the social contract. As I’ve said before, there are plenty of reasons why the debate about taxes may not end up helping Obama and Dems politically in the long run. But it does seem increasingly clear that the public is open to his framing of the argument."


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Right on the heels of the WAPO/PEW poll came the national presidential poll from FOX, but also with a similar question tacked on:

23.Do you think Barack Obama’s political strategy for re-election isto bring people together with a hopeful message or drive people apart with a partisan message?

Bring people together: 56%
Drivepeople apart: 32%
(Mixed): 4%
(Don’tknow): 8 %

Margin for "bring people together": +24%

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This polling is not confirming the GOP allegations that President Obama is engaging in "class warfare". In fact, it is showing the opposite.


 
Last edited:

jackalope

Former Staff
Jan 2010
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...
This polling is not confirming the GOP allegations that President Obama is engaging in "class warfare". In fact, it is showing the opposite.[/SIZE]

[/COLOR]

All of this, and I still think the GOP is going to have a good night, come Nov '12. Just saw another recent poll saying Dems face an enthusiasm gap, compared to the GOP. Same as in '10.
 
Jun 2011
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All of this, and I still think the GOP is going to have a good night, come Nov '12. Just saw another recent poll saying Dems face an enthusiasm gap, compared to the GOP. Same as in '10.
I differ with you on this:

More polling on the hispanic numbers shows that support for the President is really holding:

from PPP:

"There's been a lot of discussion in the last week about the role of the Hispanic vote in next year's election. Here's the bottom line on our polling: Obama's approval numbers with Hispanics are down. But Hispanic voters absolutely hate the GOP field. And because of that Obama's winning margins with Hispanics would be as large or even larger than they were in 2008 if the election was today and they'd be one of the key groups propelling him to reelection."

PPP then listed numbers, which I have put into a table:[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]
[/FONT]

PPP-Hispanic
Obama/Romney
Margin
Obama/Perry
Margin
2008 Margin






National
67 / 29
+38
70 / 27
+43
+36






Florida
65 / 26
+39
66 / 27
+39
+15






Colorado
63 / 31
+32
71 / 26
+45
+23





Obamawon FL in 2008 with +15 in the Hispanic vote. If he wins the Hispanicvote in FL with +39 this time, then this will mean a landslide forthe President in Florida, assuming a similar demographic mix ofvoters as in 2008, for at +24 jump in the Hispanic margin within thestate must add at least 3-4% to his percentage from 2008, which wouldadd between 6-8% to his +2.71% margin in 2008.


I cantell you right now, if these kind of numbers hold for Obama through2012, then he wins FL, he wins CO and he landslidesagain in NV and NM. If these numbers hold, then NM is not even on thetable in 2012.


This iswhat happens to a political party that demonizes a group of people:it loses that group as an electoral block.
 
Jun 2011
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From RASMUSSEN, yes, Ramussen:

"Most Still Blame Bad Economy on Bush-era Recession

Sunday, October 09, 2011

A majority (51%) of voters still blames the nation’s current economic problems on the recession that began under President George W. Bush rather than the economic policies of President Obama."
 
Jun 2011
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Another poll about the job bill that the GOP just killed in the Senate:

NBC/WSJ:

63% for the jobs bill
36% against it.

That is a 2 to 1 margin.
 
Mar 2010
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Near Austin TX
The "Ponzi Scheme" question only requires a little more articulation. Obviously, as introduced, Social Security is not a ponzi scheme. But as administered by Congress these past forty or so years, Gov Perry is exactly right.
 
Jun 2011
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The "Ponzi Scheme" question only requires a little more articulation. Obviously, as introduced, Social Security is not a ponzi scheme. But as administered by Congress these past forty or so years, Gov Perry is exactly right.
Nonsense.
 
Jun 2011
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Chuckle, chuckle:



69.15% of respondents in a FOX poll are in agreement with Occupy Wall Street.

Note: this is not a scientific poll, but surely FOX was looking for OWS to take a beating in the poll, and exactly the opposite happened.

Chuckle, chuckle.
 
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Jun 2011
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All-state/National Journal just put out a poll on the state of our Union, especially economically.

There are things in the poll that would appear to console but also to concern both major sides in the current political tug-of-war in our Union.

I strongly suggest that all posters simply go read the poll. National Journal tends to release chronological data with it's figures, which means it tends to ask the exact same question over a number of polls. This is helpful in being able to see trends with the naked eye.

Some highlights:
-------------------------------------------------------------
Direction of the country:

right - 20%
wrong - 70%

Margin: Wrong +50%.
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Obama approval/disapproval:

approve: 44%
disapprove: 50%

Margin: disapprove +6%.
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Who do you trust to develop solutions for our country's economic problems:

Obama: 40%
Republicans in Congress: 33%
both: 2%
neither: 20%

Margin: Obama +7.

Note: Obama's numbers on this question have remained identical over three polls: from 03/11, 05/11 and now, from 10/11.
The GOP's numbers have slipped from 37% to 33%.

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Impact of Obama’s Policies

Significantly better off because of the policies
Obama has pursued : 11%

Not significantly better off yet, but beginning to
move in the right direction because of the
policies Obama has pursued : 42%

Significantly worse off because of the policies
Obama has pursued: 41%

Don’t Know / Refused: 6%

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Go take a close look at question number 11.

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One of the things about this poll I like is the length and the intensity of the questions, but this is not every man's cup of coffee.