Post debate, FiveThirtyEight posts better-than-even Clinton chances in FL, NC and NV

Singularity

Former Staff
Oct 2009
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24,125
Kansas
#1
Trump had been forecast by a narrow margin to win all three before the debate.

As a reminder, FiveThirtyEight has been the most pessimistic aggregate since late July, from a Democratic perspective.

NYT's Upshot has had Clinton favored above 50 percent in Florida and Nevada except in late August/early September. They still forecast Trump will take N.C.


From an electoral votes perspective, Trump has to win FL or that's it.

He probably has to win NC, but can afford to lose it if he gets Pennsylvania. NV has only six votes and can be written off in *most* scenarios.
 
Likes: 2 people
Jun 2013
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22,545
VA
#2
A columnist on "Mediaite" had an interesting take on how this ONE debate loss...could be a "checkmate" against Trump.

It harkens back to Trump's eternal claim of "I'm a winner. I win. I ALWAYS win!"....the bluster that attracts so many of his Cultists.

But what happens when there is an "The Emperor is wearing no clothes" moment (the classic Hans Christian Anderson story) and Trump is shown...clearly...as LOSING to Hillary...even if it's just one Debate?

All that bluster is proven demonstrably false....and thus like a dam that starts cracking....the inevitable result with millions of gallons of water behind it is.....it totally collapses under it's on weight.
 
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Jun 2013
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VA
#5
The beginning of the end....
Not YET, necessarily. But if he crashes and burns in the 2nd Debate?....that's the ball-game.

His problem in that though is....he has shown little ability to handle debates in the past, without resorting to insults and screaming and simplistic "I am tough" and "I'll fix it" and "We need law and order...law and order is what we need...say again, we need law and order....because we need law and order" ramblings.

If somehow he CAN "prep" and memorize a lot of policy wonk stuff on taxes, foreign policy, etc....it'll be one or two lines tops....with no "depth" to it. IOW, he could spout off some statistics about Syrian rebel forces victories over ISIS....but if asked for "more" or Hillary asks him to name the leadership of the rebel forces....he'd have nothing.

But even that seems far-fetched given Trump has little ability to LEARN things. He can be programmed to read off a Teleprompter....but he doesn't seem able to retain information.

And he probably never had that ability even in his college days at Wharton.
 
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Jul 2014
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midwest
#6
Yet, Romney allegedly won the first debate against Obama.

How'd that work out?

But...no worries, cause your girl is gonna win.
 
Feb 2011
15,803
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The formerly great golden state
#8
Trump had been forecast by a narrow margin to win all three before the debate.

As a reminder, FiveThirtyEight has been the most pessimistic aggregate since late July, from a Democratic perspective.

NYT's Upshot has had Clinton favored above 50 percent in Florida and Nevada except in late August/early September. They still forecast Trump will take N.C.


From an electoral votes perspective, Trump has to win FL or that's it.

He probably has to win NC, but can afford to lose it if he gets Pennsylvania. NV has only six votes and can be written off in *most* scenarios.
The only poll that really counts is the one taken on Super Tuesday.

And if (I used to say when, but I'm beginning to lose faith in my fellow voters) Trump loses, his supporters will cry foul and claim the election was "rigged."
 
Likes: 1 person

Singularity

Former Staff
Oct 2009
30,949
24,125
Kansas
#9
The only poll that really counts is the one taken on Super Tuesday.

And if (I used to say when, but I'm beginning to lose faith in my fellow voters) Trump loses, his supporters will cry foul and claim the election was "rigged."
"I always thought of polls like perfume. Wonderful to smell, bad to swallow." — Shimon Peres

In other words, you're correct. Even intensely tuned aggregates are just a hint of what's coming. But leading in the polls heading into October is good.
 
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May 2012
65,146
12,434
By the wall
#10
538 has been wrong on every single one of their Trump predictions so far.

Hell, they only gave him a 2% chance to win the nomination.

They are not reliable.