Special election - W VA Gov: Democrats Need a Win in West Virginia

jackalope

Former Staff
Jan 2010
51,139
17,672
Maine
[h=2]Democrats Need a Win in West Virginia[/h]West Virginia voters choose their governor today in a special election. Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) once led challenger Bill Maloney (R) by 33 points but the latest poll shows the race is now a toss up.

First Read: "An upset would provide further evidence that Obama is toxic in red states -- a stark reversal from 2008, by the way -- and you'll see Democrats start running for the hills, which could produce a self-fulfilling outcome 13 months from now. In September, you could dismiss the GOP's congressional victory in New York (because of Anthony Weiner's problems, because of the Democratic candidate's poor campaign, and because of the district's unusual concentration of Orthodox Jewish voters). But it will be hard for Democrats to spin away losing this race. Keep in mind: The Democrat in this race has the support of labor AND the Chamber of Commerce. There's only ONE explanation for a loss. No one needs a win worse in West Virginia tonight than Team Obama."

Jennifer Duffy: "A close call tells us what we already know; the President isn't popular and can hurt Democrats, even when he's not on the ballot... A Maloney win, though, would be seismic, and perhaps more so than NY-09 because even using the Obama message late was enough to pull Maloney across the line."

Polls close tonight at 7:30 pm ET.

Democrats Need a Win in West Virginia

From a 33-pt lead to a toss-up .... geez
 

Rev. Hellh0und

Former Staff
Jul 2011
68,581
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315 bowery/DMS
This is a canary in the mine, when WV starts losing faith in it's democrats, you know they are in trouble.
 

jackalope

Former Staff
Jan 2010
51,139
17,672
Maine
This is a canary in the mine, when WV starts losing faith in it's democrats, you know they are in trouble.
Yes ... and no. As bonn has noted in some of his pollwatch threads, WV has long been a deep red state at the Presidential level, even though (I think) they have more Dems registered there. But they have had Dem Senators and Govs. So, it would be a change if they started losing Dem votes at the state level. But, would it be surprising? Not sure.
 
Jun 2011
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Yes ... and no. As bonn has noted in some of his pollwatch threads, WV has long been a deep red state at the Presidential level, even though (I think) they have more Dems registered there. But they have had Dem Senators and Govs. So, it would be a change if they started losing Dem votes at the state level. But, would it be surprising? Not sure.
This is correct. The current VR stats for WV, May 2011 (will be updated end of October 2011):

DEM: 53.43%
GOP: 28.81%
UNAFFILIATED: 16.10%
IND: 1.66%

Margin: DEM +24.62%

Here is a graphic of the stats from WV, comparing May 2011 to 2006 (an exact four year comparison to May 2007 was not possible) and also to End of October, 2008:



As you can see, the stats for this state have changed little over 2006. Yes, there is a majority of registered Democrats in WV, but they are generally very conservative Democrats, and like the other two states with a majority of registered Democrats but who vote Republican in GE's: KY and OK.

In 2008, while 45 states plus DC swung more Democratic over 2004, 5 states swung more Republican, and WV was one of them (plus AR, LA, TN, OK), albeit by a very small margin (considered statistically insignificant):



Since 2000, WV has voted reliably Republican in Presidential elections and figures into the GOP's calculations for getting to or over 270.

In 2010, WV voted DEM for the Senate for arguably one of the most popular and respected Governor's in it's history who ran against a Tea Party maniac who did not even live in the state.

WV is in no way a canary in a coal mine. This is a special election in an off year. It is always dangerous to try to read too much into off-year elections: the electorate that comes out today is not the same clientele that will come out in November 2012.
 
Last edited:
Jun 2011
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KOS Elections (formerly Swing State Report) has put out a good page over tonights election in WV.

It's written from the Democratic perspective, but KOS elections has been very good at sticking to the stats only when the numbers start coming in. They have some smart numbers people over their, I have collaborating with a couple of them on an occasional stats project.
 
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Jun 2011
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And the results are in, as of 05 October 2011, 02:15 EST.

From Metro News:



WV: Governor 2011
% Complete
Precincts Reporting:
1873
of
1873
100%


VOTES
%
D
EARL RAY TOMBLIN
150,732
49.63%
R
BILL MALONEY
142,890
47.05%
M
BOB HENRY BABER
6,119
2.01%
I
MARLA INGELS
2,867
0.94%
A
HARRY BERTRAM
1,112
0.37%
Total
--------------
303,720
100.00%
Margin: Earl Ray Tomblin (D) + 7,842 (+2.58%)






 
Last edited:

jackalope

Former Staff
Jan 2010
51,139
17,672
Maine
And the results are in, as of 05 October 2011, 02:15 EST.

From Metro News:



WV: Governor 2011
% Complete
Precincts Reporting:
1873
of
1873
100%


VOTES
%
D
EARL RAY TOMBLIN
150,732
49.63%
R
BILL MALONEY
142,890
47.05%
M
BOB HENRY BABER
6,119
2.01%
I
MARLA INGELS
2,867
0.94%
A
HARRY BERTRAM
1,112
0.37%
Total
--------------
303,720
100.00%
Margin: Earl Ray Tomblin (D) + 7,842 (+2.58%)







I didn't know what the (M) and (A) parties were, so I googled around. The (M) is the Mountain Party which is affiliated with the Green Party. The (A) is the American Third Way Party which is a white nationalist party. Which made me say ..... damn! The white nationalist is a new party that was founded in 2010 by some skinheads.
 

Jets

Moderator
Feb 2011
23,722
14,557
New York
Correct me if I'am wrong, but aren't the bluedog/conservative democrats dominant in WV?