The Great Filter—the most important question in history

Sep 2012
14,581
18,894
SoCal
#1
Something to THINK about. Are there other intelligent species out there (I believe that there are)? Does 'intelligent life' HAVE TO BE like us, or are we not intelligent enough to believe that is it must (man's arrogance)? Why do humans insist that WE are the only advanced intelligence in the universe (more human arrogance)? Are there other advanced civilizations out there (carbon-based or other) that have not communicated with us/avoided us because we are too immature and violent (they're waiting for us to 'grow up')? Will the human race destroy this little blue marble and all life on it without ever knowing (I believe that may be what's coming … will we 'grow up' in time to save Earth?

The Great Filter—the most important question in history
Answer two says that sure, intelligence may be as common as sand, but holding onto a technological civilization isn’t just hard, it’s essentially impossible. There are very good reasons to believe this is the correct answer.

It’s not just that since 1970, we’ve managed to kill off 60 percent of Earth’s animal life (yes, with caveats). It’s not just that humans and the things we eat now account for 96 percent of all the biomass on the planet—meaning that every Blue Whale, Mountain Gorilla, and African Elephant is left to squeeze into that last 4 percent. It’s not even that we’ve now driven our planet straight out of the climate zone where it has existed since our civilization originated. Although … yes, it could be any of those things. It may be that every intelligent civilization is simply not intelligent enough to not utterly foul its own nest.

Or it could be a matter of expanding access. A kind of malignant form of the freedom of information promoted by the Internet, and our laws, and … me, among a few billion others. Think about it this way: How many people on the planet have the ability right now to start a thermonuclear war? If you started tallying up leaders of nuclear-armed nations, you’re badly underestimating the problem.

… BEGIN AT THE BEGINNING ...
 
Likes: EnigmaO01

One

Former Staff
Dec 2006
12,186
11,144
----> X <----
#2
I've always believed there is intelligent life out there...somewhere. There is just too much space, too many stars, too many planets out there for there not to be life. Chances seem pretty slim that they are like us, unless earth has a twin out there that's had pretty much the same evolutionary /developmental history. It just seems there are too many variables involved.
Hopefully, any intelligent beings out there don't have our violent or warlike tendencies.
 
Nov 2018
206
94
unknown
#3
The idea that we are the sole planet with intelligent life is absurd. We already know from the Kepler planet hunting Telescope theres an average of 3 planets round every star, so theres al least 1 trillion galaxies x 200 billion stars x 3 planets in the universe. The problem is one of time and scale. We've gone from lemurs to humans in less than 50 million years, which on the universes scale of 13 billion years (which is the diameter of the observable universe, when you take spacetime expansion into account, the universe must be at minimum of 30 billion parsecs diameter - (and ill return to that number later), is a flash of a second.

The problem is i believe that intelligent life probably arises and vanishes without making contact very often with any other intelligen tlife, because you have to be in the same tiny little 50 million year time slot, and the same tiny little chunk of the same galaxy, and youhave to make it through all ther filters to Kardshev level 1. And it probably doesnt happen often.

We are a Kardashev level 0.85 civilisation. At level 1 we acquire the means to do practical interplanetary travel, and level 1 is heraded by the invention of sentient AI, an event known as the Technological Singularity. Its a point when the exponentially increasing acquisition of knowledge we are experiencing goes infinite, and almost overnight various technologies suddenly become practical to us. The current expection is we achieve TS between 2045 and 2075. This is based on the rate at which paradigm shifts in 20 different fields of science are occuring, and the fact they are tending to occur at an expenentially incresing rate

Many civilisations die out before this, because of filters, events that the speices must navigate through and survive. The most recent filter we survived was the threat of self destuction by Nuclear war. I believe we are now approaching possibly the last filter before level 1 Kardashev - the triple threat thats building up into world war by by the a) the Global elite plan to enslave the world, b0 the parallel threat by the communist UN to destroy capitalism create a socialist utopia, and c) the cultural conflict being created all over the free world by moslem mass migration and their World Caliphate. if we can get past these three threats to the ordinary man without nuclear WW3, we might make it to level 1.

So the question arises , where are All the Aliens? When you look out into the universe, its silent., With all those planets and stars, the universe should have some detectable signs of alien life, but theres nothing, no signs at all. The answer, I believe is that we are not listening or looking with the right eyes. There are tribes in the Amazon jungle who have no idea the rest of us exist, because they have the same problem,. They dont have the correct technology to detect us. Give them a mobile phone or a TV, they would realise we are here. It likely, in my view, that whatever methods any aliens out there use to communicate, its not radio ,they may well have some super duper method we havent even thought of, like using microgravitational waves. But weve certainly seen them fly about.

Theres been over 1million UFO sightings worldwide since 1947. Over 1 million people worldwide report some sort of encunter or abduction event. Some ufo encounters have immaculate, unreprochable credentials from official bodies and uninpeachable professional observers. At leats 20 UFO encounters are backed up by solid military and civilian radar tracks. Even if only 0.0001% of these are genuine alien enclunters , thats 100 incontrovertible cases, and it only needs 1 to prove they are out there. The fact is, the aliens dont seem to be too bothered about hiding from us, based on the number of reports, its the earth authorities that seem to be the keenest to hide it. And thus one has to ask, why? what is it about these alleged aliens they dont want us to find out about? What nefarious, double dealing has gone on in secret?

Its probable, as Ive pointed out, that many would be intelligent species die out, killed by one of the filters. Maybe only one in a hundred get to Kardashev level 1 and and one in a hundred of those get to Level 2 and onely one in a hundred of THOSE make level 3. But in this vast infinite universe, thats plenty.

And theres another problem - everything we think we know about physics may be wrong. Our entire model of the universe and physics is predilected on two assumptions which have no evidence at all - that the universe is finite, and the amount of matter/energy in the universe is fixed. There is no observational or mathematical evidence either of these are true. And if they arent, then our entire understanding of the nature of time and releaity are wrong.

Most modern efforts to understand it begin with the 2nd Law of thermodynamics This says that the entropy of the universe – its overall disorder, essentially – always increases. The argument is superficially convincing: you can’t unscramble an egg or unspill a glass of wine emptied onto your beautiful Afghan carpet, because to do so is to decrease entropy. Many physicists interpret entropy increase as time’s arrow: a one-way street for the processes of the universe. If relativity gives us the outline of the stage on which reality plays out, Thermodynamics explains why the play always follows the same plot line.

Essentially, that plot follows the statistical law of averages. Highly ordered states are unlikely: think atoms stacked neatly in one corner of a box. Entropy tends to increase because we move towards more likely states: all the atoms distributed at random throughout the box. Tracing the universe back in time to its beginning, you follow a path to a more and more implausible, low-entropy state. The remaining mystery, then, is why the universe began in such an improbable state.

However........ we have no evidence that the universe’s overall entropy is actually increasing. It could be just a local phenomenon, like a cold snap in a warming global climate. Secondly, the second law of thermodynamics only applies to closed systems whos total energy remains unchanged– and again, it is far from clear this applies to the universe. It seems the universe isnt a box, and that its expenading without limit,. and the gaps created fill with new matter or energy by quantum fluctuation. If thats the case, the restrictions based on entropy probably don’t apply. and that means time is a local phenomena, at best, or simply an illusion created by our brains and our maths. And it also means the Standard Model is wrong (its already in difficulties, it cant explain gravity, or time, or why there are fixed starting constants in the Big Bang). And if the standard Model is wrong to that extent, you can throw out all of the last 100 years worth of physics, and start again. and statements like "Travel at the speed of light is barred by relativity" becomes merely unsustainable opinion

Theres far far more to this, but too much for one post. But ist enough to make you realise nothing is 'impossible' or 'proven' in physics.
 
Last edited:
Jul 2019
441
184
Heartland
#5
Something to THINK about. Are there other intelligent species out there (I believe that there are)? Does 'intelligent life' HAVE TO BE like us, or are we not intelligent enough to believe that is it must (man's arrogance)? Why do humans insist that WE are the only advanced intelligence in the universe (more human arrogance)? Are there other advanced civilizations out there (carbon-based or other) that have not communicated with us/avoided us because we are too immature and violent (they're waiting for us to 'grow up')? Will the human race destroy this little blue marble and all life on it without ever knowing (I believe that may be what's coming … will we 'grow up' in time to save Earth?

The Great Filter—the most important question in history
Humans have only been intelligent for less than 100 years. Of the more than 7.5 billion people alive today you would be hard pressed to find 500 million really intelligent people. I classify myself as only slightly intelligent.
 
Nov 2018
206
94
unknown
#6
KARDASHEV LEVELS
The Kardashev scale is a method of measuring a civilization's level of technological advancement based on the amount of energy a civilization is able to use. It was proposed by Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev in 1964. The scale has three designated categories:


 
Last edited:
Jan 2014
18,147
5,160
California
#7
Humans have only been intelligent for less than 100 years. Of the more than 7.5 billion people alive today you would be hard pressed to find 500 million really intelligent people. I classify myself as only slightly intelligent.
Mr. Lee,

Just so you know, we really intelligent people do not think less of you. Everybody has their hand they are dealt. It is how you play that hand that matters.
 
Mar 2010
5,853
3,877
out
#8
Comical, especially the warnings against the global elite, the communist UN and moslem World Califate.
The idea that we are the sole planet with intelligent life is absurd. We already know from the Kepler planet hunting Telescope theres an average of 3 planets round every star, so theres al least 1 trillion galaxies x 200 billion stars x 3 planets in the universe. The problem is one of time and scale. We've gone from lemurs to humans in less than 50 million years, which on the universes scale of 13 billion years (which is the diameter of the observable universe, when you take spacetime expansion into account, the universe must be at minimum of 30 billion parsecs diameter - (and ill return to that number later), is a flash of a second.

The problem is i believe that intelligent life probably arises and vanishes without making contact very often with any other intelligen tlife, because you have to be in the same tiny little 50 million year time slot, and the same tiny little chunk of the same galaxy, and youhave to make it through all ther filters to Kardshev level 1. And it probably doesnt happen often.

We are a Kardashev level 0.85 civilisation. At level 1 we acquire the means to do practical interplanetary travel, and level 1 is heraded by the invention of sentient AI, an event known as the Technological Singularity. Its a point when the exponentially increasing acquisition of knowledge we are experiencing goes infinite, and almost overnight various technologies suddenly become practical to us. The current expection is we achieve TS between 2045 and 2075. This is based on the rate at which paradigm shifts in 20 different fields of science are occuring, and the fact they are tending to occur at an expenentially incresing rate

Many civilisations die out before this, because of filters, events that the speices must navigate through and survive. The most recent filter we survived was the threat of self destuction by Nuclear war. I believe we are now approaching possibly the last filter before level 1 Kardashev - the triple threat thats building up into world war by by the a) the Global elite plan to enslave the world, b0 the parallel threat by the communist UN to destroy capitalism create a socialist utopia, and c) the cultural conflict being created all over the free world by moslem mass migration and their World Caliphate. if we can get past these three threats to the ordinary man without nuclear WW3, we might make it to level 1.

So the question arises , where are All the Aliens? When you look out into the universe, its silent., With all those planets and stars, the universe should have some detectable signs of alien life, but theres nothing, no signs at all. The answer, I believe is that we are not listening or looking with the right eyes. There are tribes in the Amazon jungle who have no idea the rest of us exist, because they have the same problem,. They dont have the correct technology to detect us. Give them a mobile phone or a TV, they would realise we are here. It likely, in my view, that whatever methods any aliens out there use to communicate, its not radio ,they may well have some super duper method we havent even thought of, like using microgravitational waves. But weve certainly seen them fly about.

Theres been over 1million UFO sightings worldwide since 1947. Over 1 million people worldwide report some sort of encunter or abduction event. Some ufo encounters have immaculate, unreprochable credentials from official bodies and uninpeachable professional observers. At leats 20 UFO encounters are backed up by solid military and civilian radar tracks. Even if only 0.0001% of these are genuine alien enclunters , thats 100 incontrovertible cases, and it only needs 1 to prove they are out there. The fact is, the aliens dont seem to be too bothered about hiding from us, based on the number of reports, its the earth authorities that seem to be the keenest to hide it. And thus one has to ask, why? what is it about these alleged aliens they dont want us to find out about? What nefarious, double dealing has gone on in secret?

Its probable, as Ive pointed out, that many would be intelligent species die out, killed by one of the filters. Maybe only one in a hundred get to Kardashev level 1 and and one in a hundred of those get to Level 2 and onely one in a hundred of THOSE make level 3. But in this vast infinite universe, thats plenty.

And theres another problem - everything we think we know about physics may be wrong. Our entire model of the universe and physics is predilected on two assumptions which have no evidence at all - that the universe is finite, and the amount of matter/energy in the universe is fixed. There is no observational or mathematical evidence either of these are true. And if they arent, then our entire understanding of the nature of time and releaity are wrong.

Most modern efforts to understand it begin with the 2nd Law of thermodynamics This says that the entropy of the universe – its overall disorder, essentially – always increases. The argument is superficially convincing: you can’t unscramble an egg or unspill a glass of wine emptied onto your beautiful Afghan carpet, because to do so is to decrease entropy. Many physicists interpret entropy increase as time’s arrow: a one-way street for the processes of the universe. If relativity gives us the outline of the stage on which reality plays out, Thermodynamics explains why the play always follows the same plot line.

Essentially, that plot follows the statistical law of averages. Highly ordered states are unlikely: think atoms stacked neatly in one corner of a box. Entropy tends to increase because we move towards more likely states: all the atoms distributed at random throughout the box. Tracing the universe back in time to its beginning, you follow a path to a more and more implausible, low-entropy state. The remaining mystery, then, is why the universe began in such an improbable state.

However........ we have no evidence that the universe’s overall entropy is actually increasing. It could be just a local phenomenon, like a cold snap in a warming global climate. Secondly, the second law of thermodynamics only applies to closed systems whos total energy remains unchanged– and again, it is far from clear this applies to the universe. It seems the universe isnt a box, and that its expenading without limit,. and the gaps created fill with new matter or energy by quantum fluctuation. If thats the case, the restrictions based on entropy probably don’t apply. and that means time is a local phenomena, at best, or simply an illusion created by our brains and our maths. And it also means the Standard Model is wrong (its already in difficulties, it cant explain gravity, or time, or why there are fixed starting constants in the Big Bang). And if the standard Model is wrong to that extent, you can throw out all of the last 100 years worth of physics, and start again. and statements like "Travel at the speed of light is barred by relativity" becomes merely unsustainable opinion

Theres far far more to this, but too much for one post. But ist enough to make you realise nothing is 'impossible' or 'proven' in physics.
Welcome to the bord, you'll feet right in!