The Growing Rejection Of Expertise In America

Jan 2016
51,736
47,977
Colorado
You are lying, the job market bottomed out in March 2009 according to your cite below, you think people on this board are too stupid to see through your lies?

People here, I think, are capable of seeing that:

(1) America LOST jobs in EVERY month of 2009 except for November, when we gained a paltry 12,000 jobs;

(2) We lost very nearly 2.5 million jobs in the First Quarter of 2009, when you continue to insist that the economy was "improving"; and that

(3) We lost more jobs in June of 2009 than we did in May of that year, going from 344,000 jobs lost in May, to 465,000 jobs lost (nearly half a million, by the way!) in June.......

ALL of which are VERY hard to square with your IDIOTIC claim that the economy 'bottomed out' at the beginning of the year. Again, no one in their right mind says that the economy is 'improving' until Real GDP growth is POSITIVE-----we are in a recession until then------and no one says that the labor market has turned around until we actually start GAINING jobs. Real GDP growth did not turn positive until July 2009, and the labor market did not turn consistently positive until early 2010. Those are FACTS.
 
Apr 2015
13,904
2,450
Katmandu
People here, I think, are capable of seeing that:

(1) America LOST jobs in EVERY month of 2009 except for November, when we gained a paltry 12,000 jobs;

(2) We lost very nearly 2.5 million jobs in the First Quarter of 2009, when you continue to insist that the economy was "improving"; and that

(3) We lost more jobs in June of 2009 than we did in May of that year, going from 344,000 jobs lost in May, to 465,000 jobs lost (nearly half a million, by the way!) in June.......

ALL of which are VERY hard to square with your IDIOTIC claim that the economy 'bottomed out' at the beginning of the year. Again, no one in their right mind says that the economy is 'improving' until Real GDP growth is POSITIVE-----we are in a recession until then------and no one says that the labor market has turned around until we actually start GAINING jobs. Real GDP growth did not turn positive until July 2009, and the labor market did not turn consistently positive until early 2010. Those are FACTS.
You lie more than Donald Trump, the economy bottomed out in Q4 2008 and started improving, the jobs market bottomed out in Q1 2009 and started improving, here is the proof that you posted:




 
Jan 2016
51,736
47,977
Colorado
You lie more than Donald Trump, the economy bottomed out in Q4 2008 and started improving, the jobs market bottomed out in Q1 2009 and started improving, here is the proof that you posted:
Kindly stop spamming the board with your idiocies, Libertine. Nothing that I posted in my previous post was a lie. If you are disputing ANY of the three numbered points I made in my previous post, then DO so. Here they are again:

(1) America LOST jobs in EVERY month of 2009 except for November, when we gained a paltry 12,000 jobs;

(2) We lost very nearly 2.5 million jobs in the First Quarter of 2009, when you continue to insist that the economy was "improving"; and that

(3) We lost more jobs in June of 2009 than we did in May of that year, going from 344,000 jobs lost in May, to 465,000 jobs lost (nearly half a million, by the way!) in June.......
 
Apr 2015
13,904
2,450
Katmandu
Kindly stop spamming the board with your idiocies, Libertine. Nothing that I posted in my previous post was a lie. If you are disputing ANY of the three numbered points I made in my previous post, then DO so. Here they are again:

(1) America LOST jobs in EVERY month of 2009 except for November, when we gained a paltry 12,000 jobs;

(2) We lost very nearly 2.5 million jobs in the First Quarter of 2009, when you continue to insist that the economy was "improving"; and that

(3) We lost more jobs in June of 2009 than we did in May of that year, going from 344,000 jobs lost in May, to 465,000 jobs lost (nearly half a million, by the way!) in June.......
So the economy didn't bottom out in Q4 2008 and start improving before Obama took office?

The jobs market didn't bottom out in March 2009 and start improving?

You called me a liar for those statements, sticking with that wrongful personal insult?




 
Apr 2015
13,904
2,450
Katmandu
People here, I think, are capable of seeing that:

(1) America LOST jobs in EVERY month of 2009 except for November, when we gained a paltry 12,000 jobs;

(2) We lost very nearly 2.5 million jobs in the First Quarter of 2009, when you continue to insist that the economy was "improving"; and that

(3) We lost more jobs in June of 2009 than we did in May of that year, going from 344,000 jobs lost in May, to 465,000 jobs lost (nearly half a million, by the way!) in June.......

ALL of which are VERY hard to square with your IDIOTIC claim that the economy 'bottomed out' at the beginning of the year. Again, no one in their right mind says that the economy is 'improving' until Real GDP growth is POSITIVE-----we are in a recession until then------and no one says that the labor market has turned around until we actually start GAINING jobs. Real GDP growth did not turn positive until July 2009, and the labor market did not turn consistently positive until early 2010. Those are FACTS.
You lie more than Donald Trump, the economy bottomed out in Q4 2008 and started improving, the jobs market bottomed out in Q1 2009 and started improving, here is the proof:

 
Jan 2016
51,736
47,977
Colorado
So the economy didn't bottom out in Q4 2008 and start improving before Obama took office?

The jobs market didn't bottom out in March 2009 and start improving?

You called me a liar for those statements, sticking with that wrongful personal insult?
The economy did NOT 'start improving before Obama took office'!!

Truly, how many times do you have to have this explained to you??

No one, but NO ONE, in their RIGHT MIND, says that the economy is 'improving' until Real GDP Growth is POSITIVE!!

WHEN did Real GDP Growth turn positive, Libertine??

Yes, or No? Was the American economy SHRINKING in the first half of 2009?

No one, but NO ONE, in their RIGHT MIND, says the labor market has turned around, until the economy actually starts CREATING new jobs!!

When did the American economy first start creating more jobs than were being lost after the Great Recession, Libertine?


One more time: Ben Bernanke says the American economy was in a 'DIRE condition' in MARCH of 2009. He would say, in other words, to your face, that you are full of SHIT.
 
Jan 2016
51,736
47,977
Colorado
You lie more than Donald Trump, the economy bottomed out in Q4 2008 and started improving, the jobs market bottomed out in Q1 2009 and started improving, here is the proof:

It is NOT 'improving' until it is ABOVE that zero line, you mathematical illiterate!!!!
 
Mar 2019
4,225
1,492
California
The economy did NOT 'start improving before Obama took office'!!

Truly, how many times do you have to have this explained to you??

No one, but NO ONE, in their RIGHT MIND, says that the economy is 'improving' until Real GDP Growth is POSITIVE!!

WHEN did Real GDP Growth turn positive, Libertine??

Yes, or No? Was the American economy SHRINKING in the first half of 2009?

No one, but NO ONE, in their RIGHT MIND, says the labor market has turned around, until the economy actually starts CREATING new jobs!!

When did the American economy first start creating more jobs than were being lost after the Great Recession, Libertine?


One more time: Ben Bernanke says the American economy was in a 'DIRE condition' in MARCH of 2009. He would say, in other words, to your face, that you are full of SHIT.
How could it possibly? Pelosi was Speaker. That stops all progress.
 
May 2019
18
10
Los Alamos
As many of you know, this is an old theme with me. I have often had occasion to say that more and more, in America, the 'opinions' of Joe Sixpack, pontificating from his bar-stool down at the local corner tavern, are held to be just as valid, if not more so, than the carefully weighed judgments of accredited experts, with doctorates in their fields, who have spent decades engaged in intensive study of the issues at hand, generally with the most powerful tools that modern science and technology can provide.

I recently came across this article in the journal Foreign Affairs, while going through my piles of magazines, that makes many of the same points, in very eloquent fashion. On the cover of the March/April 2017 issue of that journal is the subtitle "How America Turned Against Experts", and when you turn to the article, the title is: "How America Lost Faith in Expertise, and Why That's a Giant Problem".

How America Lost Faith in Expertise

The article starts by making a rather hilarious point. After Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, Americans were polled about whether (or not) we should intervene militarily in Ukraine. Well, only one in six Americans could even identify Ukraine on a map. Not surprising to me. The median response was off by 1800 miles. But here's what is funny: The respondents favored intervention in direct proportion to their ignorance: "the people who thought Ukraine was located in Latin America or in Australia [LeRoy: LOLOLOLOL!!!] were the most enthusiastic about using military force there."

Another quote from the article: "Some of the smartest people on earth have a significant presence on the Internet. Some of the stupidest people, however, reside just one click away. The countless dumpsters of nonsense parked on the Internet are an expert's nightmare."

And this one made me laugh: "As the comedian John Oliver has pointed out, you don't need to gather opinions on a fact: 'You might as well have a poll asking, 'Which number is bigger, 15 or 5?' Or, 'Do owls exist?', or 'Are there hats?'"

The entire article is well worth reading, and it points out the extreme importance of experts and expertise to the maintenance of a republic in our complex modern world.
Sun 6-9-19 7:29 p.m.

I have spent some of my career dealing with a few experts here and there.

There was an old television series in the 1960's called "The Tycoon" which starred Walter Brennan. The tycoon spent some of his time working in the plants he owned. In one episode, he was operating a lathe. He made a comment that no one knew more than the person who was working within 25 feet of the lathe.

Some years ago, The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) became very concerned about "experts". The difficulty was that the information in expert's heads may not be written down anywhere. Consequently, valuable information can be lost if an expert takes another job, is promoted, goes to work for someone else, retires, or dies. There may be some effort to capture valuable "expert-based" information for future use, but these efforts are not implemented uniformly. Proceduralizing everything provides a basis for knowing what to do on many issues, but procedures do not cover everything and procedures do not necessarily provide "scientific or engineering judgement". Every situation is different and even an "expert" may suddenly become a novice on some specific issue. However, an expert might at least be able to formulate some kind of response or plan of attack on some issue. A sound approach is to have experts and documentation.

I have long made a case for the Seven Metrics when confronted by some issue - Budget / Financial, Human Factors, Productivity, Quality, Safety, Schedule, and Security. (Note: Things like environmental pollution might be found under safety.) Let's say that someone develops a project, equipment design, or a procedure. After a preliminary design is developed, hazard analysis should be used to identify weaknesses in the design. For example, a project might have a particular schedule which must be met. It would be helpful to see if there are any long-lead items which could adversely affect the schedule.

I also like the use of the 31-step engineering life-cycle (for example, national consensus codes/standards and regulatory/legal guidance, design philosophy, design alternatives, detailed design, hazard analysis, specification, procurement, manufacturing, packaging, shipping, receipt inspection, warehouse storage, transportation to site of use, staging, installation, readiness assessment, cold testing, hot testing, start-up, operation, maintenance, modification [go back to the beginning of the life-cycle to see if anything has changed and perform a new hazard analysis], decommissioning, documentation, etc.). This helps to locate weaknesses and problems in the project, design, procedure, etc.

I also like Equipment Data Books (EDBs) with information on structures / systems / subsystems / equipment items / equipment components / chemicals and formulations. EDBs have a process flow diagram / process and instrumentation diagram / system diagram / electric diagram which gives and over-all picture of what something does. It is followed by detailed life-cycle engineering information (correspondence, operating records, etc.) on everything in the system (maybe decades worth of info.). That's lots of data. Furthermore, the project / design / procedure may be updated periodically, so you really need a legacy EDB, and current EDB (which defines what is currently out in the field), and a future / proposed EDB. With an EDB, a rookie can become an expert overnight (on some specific issue). The EDB is a communication tool which allows information to be found quickly (unlike some primitive / all inclusive search engines). OK, I lied. If you take a big E-size drawing, scan it, and shrink it down to the size of a postage stamp, the information will probably be illegible.

Now if you couple the Seven Metrics, the Engineering Life-Cycle info., the EDBs, log books, along with expect experience opinion, you start to have what Harold Geneen (Raytheon, ITT) called an "unshakable fact".

It has been said that this is "over-the-top". However, I put this kind of comment in the same bin as the historical information on the folks who burned down the ancient library at Alexandria. It was a tremendous loss of information about the ancients who came long before the current cadre of experts.

Never let an expert unsettle your own good experience. However, always be prepared to learn something new.

Regards,

Moderatevoter451