The Realistic Outlook on 2018

Oct 2015
8,307
2,694
ohio
#1
Okay, so here is the breakdown.

Seats in the Senate that Democrats will have the chance to take from Republicans: 8

Seats in the Senate that Democrats will have to defend from Republicans: 23 (25 in reality)

Seats in the House of Representatives that the Democrats need to win to take back the House: 24

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2018

  • There are 10 states with a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016: Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and only one state with a Republican incumbent that was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016: Nevada.

    There are 13 states with a Democratic incumbent that have a Republican governor: New Mexico, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine but no states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor.

    There are four states that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 that were won by Donald Trump in 2016: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but no states that were won by the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 (McCain and Romney) which were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016:
Does anyone see Congress flipping to the Democrats in 2018??? If so, why and how?
 
Jul 2013
53,781
57,590
Nashville, TN
#2
Depends on Trump still being in the 30's on popularity and how many poor and working people Republicans are able to fuck over in the next 18 months, looks like 23 million in one shot with the repeal of the ACA to give billionaires a trillion dollar tax cut. And it will get worse as Ryan, Trump, and McConnell pursue their goals of destroying the entire social safety net. You cannot keep counting on stupidity to save the Republican Party.
 
Likes: 1 person
Oct 2015
8,307
2,694
ohio
#3
Depends on Trump still being in the 30's on popularity and how many poor and working people Republicans are able to fuck over in the next 18 months, looks like 23 million in one shot with the repeal of the ACA to give billionaires a trillion dollar tax cut. And it will get worse as Ryan, Trump, and McConnell pursue their goals of destroying the entire social safety net. You cannot keep counting on stupidity to save the Republican Party.
So unless Republicans keep or the legislation that they ran on repealing (they won over 1,000 seats nationwide during Obama's administration doing so), they'll lose?

Just a month or so ago nearly 100% of Trump voters polled would vote for him again.

ABC News poll finds 96 percent of Trump voters say they'd do it again | abc7ny.com

I know, single-payer is what they're looking for, right?
 
Jul 2013
53,781
57,590
Nashville, TN
#4
Republicans are more than happy to pass a healthcare bill they absolutely know is going to gut healthcare for poor people in America, that is beyond question. I guess we will just have to see if enough Americans are OK with that to keep voting in Republicans to govern them, wont we?
 
Likes: 1 person
Oct 2015
8,307
2,694
ohio
#5
Republicans are more than happy to pass a healthcare bill they absolutely know is going to gut healthcare for poor people in America, that is beyond question. I guess we will just have to see if enough Americans are OK with that to keep voting in Republicans to govern them, wont we?
Because Obamacare is working out so well?
 
Jul 2013
53,781
57,590
Nashville, TN
#6
So unless Republicans keep or the legislation that they ran on repealing (they won over 1,000 seats nationwide during Obama's administration doing so), they'll lose?

Just a month or so ago nearly 100% of Trump voters polled would vote for him again.

ABC News poll finds 96 percent of Trump voters say they'd do it again | abc7ny.com

I know, single-payer is what they're looking for, right?
You left out the "replace" part of his promise, and I don't recall the replacement promising to be a piece of shit tax cut for billionaires. You realize Trump did not get a majority of votes in 2016, right? If his malfeasance drives independents and Democrats to the polls, and he gets every vote he got last year, he still loses, big time. Do you think there is no charismatic younger Democrat available to run against him? You had 25 years to destroy Hillary with allegations, innuendoes, and flat out lies, and you still barely beat her. A White Nationalist agenda is not appealing to enough people to keep Trump in office.
 
Likes: 1 person
May 2012
66,996
13,059
By the wall
#9
It's basically impossible for them to take it back.

The best they can hope for is to pick up enough seats to give them a chance in 2020.

Midterms historically go for the party opposite of the president however so they could make some gains.

So 2018 won't change anything but it will set the stage for the big show in 2020 which is up to the republicans. If they don't perform it probably won't go good for them.
 

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