Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody's accurate election model

Nov 2008
67,021
5,492
Washington state
President Donald Trump looks likely to cruise to reelection next year under three different economic models Moody's Analytics employed to gauge the 2020 race.
Barring anything unusual happening, the president's Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.
Moody's based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump's tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.

The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.

If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump's election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics and co-author of the paper along with Dan White, the firm's director of government counsulting and fiscal policy research, and Bernard Yaros, an assistant director and economist. "It's about turnout."
Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes, assuming average turnout. His chances decrease with maximum turnout on the Democratic side and increase with minimum turnout expected.

Of the three models, he does best under the "pocketbook" measure of how people feel about their finances. In that scenario, assuming average nonincumbent turnout, he gets 351 electoral votes to the generic Democrat's 187. "Record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory," the report said.
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In the stock market model, Trump gets a 289-249 edge, while the unemployment model shows a 332-206 advantage. Across all three models, Trump wins 324-214.
"Our 'pocket¬book' model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition," the report said. "This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election."Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody's accurate election model
Moody has been right every time except 2016 when they picked Hillary. There projections are pretty high for Trump based on economics. Usually incumbents easily win when the economy is doing well. If Moody is wrong tell me how?


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Sep 2016
26,904
23,392
My own world
Too bad the average American still can't afford to cover an unexpected expense of just $400. The Stock market affecting peoples 401K'S is great if you are retiring now but most people are not retiring so the increases are only on paper. The average person personally doesn't feel better off under Trump.



Nearly two-thirds of Americans say they are not better off financially than they were when Donald Trump was elected, casting doubt on whether economic expansion and a record bull market will boost the president’s re-election campaign in 2020.

According to a poll of likely voters conducted by the Financial Times and the Peter G Peterson Foundation, 31 per cent of Americans say they are now worse off financially than they were at the start of Mr Trump’s presidency. Another 33 per cent say there has been no change in their financial position since Mr Trump’s inauguration in January 2017, while 35 per cent say they are better off.

 
Jul 2011
37,016
3,794
Tennessee
Too bad the average American still can't afford to cover an unexpected expense of just $400. The Stock market affecting peoples 401K'S is great if you are retiring now but most people are not retiring so the increases are only on paper. The average person personally doesn't feel better off under Trump.



Nearly two-thirds of Americans say they are not better off financially than they were when Donald Trump was elected, casting doubt on whether economic expansion and a record bull market will boost the president’s re-election campaign in 2020.

According to a poll of likely voters conducted by the Financial Times and the Peter G Peterson Foundation, 31 per cent of Americans say they are now worse off financially than they were at the start of Mr Trump’s presidency. Another 33 per cent say there has been no change in their financial position since Mr Trump’s inauguration in January 2017, while 35 per cent say they are better off.

and they couldn't cover it under Obama either.
 
Oct 2011
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16,942
Washington State
How? They got it wrong in 2016 didn't they? Trumpster's have been screaming about how they got it wrong in 2016 then jump on any poll that favors Trump. Amazing!

It's way too early to jump on any ship. Incumbents may win when the economy is doing well but this is not just any incumbent. It''s Donald Trump and his presidency is exhausting. He's losing women in masses since the start of the Impeachment hearings.
 
Sep 2019
1,539
2,241
dfw, texas
and they couldn't cover it under Obama either.
not true...

Rate of uninsured Americans rises for the first time since ...

https://www.cnbc.com › 2019/09/10 › rate-of-insured-americans-decreases-f...

Sep 10, 2019 - The rate of Americans without health insurance rose last year for the first ... the increase in uninsured Americans on the Trump administration's ... to weaken the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.


After Falling Under Obama, America's Uninsured Rate Looks ...

https://www.nytimes.com › rate-of-americans-without-health-insurance-rising

Jan 23, 2019 - And a new survey shows that more Americans are living without ... rate that we have measured over the course of Obamacare has now been ...
Yes, more people are uninsured since Donald Trump took ...

https://www.politifact.com › truth-o-meter › statements › mar › julian-castro

Claim: Says Donald Trump’s health care policies have "left millions more Americans uninsured since he took office."
Claimed by: Julián Castro


Census health insurance data: US uninsured rate rises under ...

https://www.vox.com › policy-and-politics › health-insurance-census-bure...

Sep 10, 2019 - The uninsured rate had been steadily declining for a decade. But now it's rising again. ... steps over the last few years to both hamstring the Obamacare marketplaces for private insurance and to roll back Medicaid enrollment.
 
Jul 2011
37,016
3,794
Tennessee
Too bad the average American still can't afford to cover an unexpected expense of just $400. The Stock market affecting peoples 401K'S is great if you are retiring now but most people are not retiring so the increases are only on paper. The average person personally doesn't feel better off under Trump.



Nearly two-thirds of Americans say they are not better off financially than they were when Donald Trump was elected, casting doubt on whether economic expansion and a record bull market will boost the president’s re-election campaign in 2020.

According to a poll of likely voters conducted by the Financial Times and the Peter G Peterson Foundation, 31 per cent of Americans say they are now worse off financially than they were at the start of Mr Trump’s presidency. Another 33 per cent say there has been no change in their financial position since Mr Trump’s inauguration in January 2017, while 35 per cent say they are better off.

here's the other way to read this linked story, nearly 70% of americans say their finances are not worse off.
 
Jul 2011
37,016
3,794
Tennessee
not true...

Rate of uninsured Americans rises for the first time since ...
https://www.cnbc.com › 2019/09/10 › rate-of-insured-americans-decreases-f...

Sep 10, 2019 - The rate of Americans without health insurance rose last year for the first ... the increase in uninsured Americans on the Trump administration's ... to weaken the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.


After Falling Under Obama, America's Uninsured Rate Looks ...
https://www.nytimes.com › rate-of-americans-without-health-insurance-rising

Jan 23, 2019 - And a new survey shows that more Americans are living without ... rate that we have measured over the course of Obamacare has now been ...
Yes, more people are uninsured since Donald Trump took ...
https://www.politifact.com › truth-o-meter › statements › mar › julian-castro

Claim: Says Donald Trump’s health care policies have "left millions more Americans uninsured since he took office."
Claimed by: Julián Castro


Census health insurance data: US uninsured rate rises under ...
https://www.vox.com › policy-and-politics › health-insurance-census-bure...

Sep 10, 2019 - The uninsured rate had been steadily declining for a decade. But now it's rising again. ... steps over the last few years to both hamstring the Obamacare marketplaces for private insurance and to roll back Medicaid enrollment.
we aren't talking about health insurance.

post failure on your part.
 
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