Trump's Rally in El Paso

Jul 2011
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An O'Rourke burnout is possible ... I think Booker is a rock solid candidate. Both will have no difficulty keeping pace or beating Trump on fundraising, unless Trump decides to dump a billion dollars of his own money into the race, which is possible (assuming he has a billion dollars to spend without a massive fire sale of illiquid assets).

The fact remains: To win in 2016, Trump needed a trifecta of unlikely events to occur in his favor. They did, so he barely won in the crucial states.


I disagree, booker's spartacus moment, his support of the "green new deal", and his veganism comments will sink him quickly.
 
Jul 2011
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Memphis, Tn.
Ahh so it's like ny and nj, the states artificially were able to raise property taxes so high because we were able to deduct them, now that that's been corrected, liberal states now have to reap what they sow.


Why would republicans ever care about california on a national level any more than democrats would care about say montanna?


Do you have a link showing that orange county republicans voted democrat because of the tax reforms?
Uh, because California has close to 40 million citizens whereas as Montata has a bit over ONW million.
Just a guess.
 

Singularity

Former Staff
Oct 2009
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Kansas
I disagree, booker's spartacus moment, his support of the "green new deal", and his veganism comments will sink him quickly.
We'll see. I know the GOP is real horned up on the notion that the GND is going to be a political loser. That's putting the cart before the horse.

To wit, I think that McConnell's decision to force a vote on it could well bite him in the ass.

He's not as smart as people say he is, he's just ruthless and has gotten lucky at inconvenient times.
 
Jul 2011
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We'll see. I know the GOP is real horned up on the notion that the GND is going to be a political loser. That's putting the cart before the horse.

To wit, I think that McConnell's decision to force a vote on it could well bite him in the ass.

He's not as smart as people say he is, he's just ruthless and has gotten lucky at inconvenient times.


I disagree, I think when the candidates are chosen if the democrat candidate voted for the goofy proposal or voiced support for it, they will be hammered with it's most rediculous parts.
 
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Singularity

Former Staff
Oct 2009
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I disagree, I think when the candidates are chosen if the democrat candidate voted for the goofy proposal or voiced support for it, they will be hammered with it's most rediculous parts.
Either way, the central Democratic message of 2020 will be "Fire Trump." Most Americans WILL be receptive to that. It's just a fact.
 
Jul 2011
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Either way, the central Democratic message of 2020 will be "Fire Trump." Most Americans WILL be receptive to that. It's just a fact.


I don't think that's a fact. you have the media selling the idea that everyone hates him, goes out of their way to convince people of that. Then you see his approval rating within the margin of error of Obama at the same time, AND the sampling size is almost always weighted with too many democrats.
 
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Singularity

Former Staff
Oct 2009
31,750
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Kansas
I don't think that's a fact. you have the media selling the idea that everyone hates him, goes out of their way to convince people of that. Then you see his approval rating within the margin of error of Obama at the same time, AND the sampling size is almost always weighted with too many democrats.
He's at a negative 10 spread, per RCP. He's at a negative 12.5 spread per FiveThirtyEight.

Those are significantly worse than Obama's numbers at this stage in 2011, and they're industry-wide aggregates.

"Sample size" or over-representation don't really come into it with aggregates.

If you set aside polls, fine. But Trump's preferred candidate clearly lost statewide last year, in three states he had to win in 2016.