Upcoming economic challenges


Jan 2015
Left coast
Stemming from the thread on Warren's new tax suggestion, comments were made that lead me to some further things I have been thinking about for a long time.

Or economy needs a rethink involving much more than just tax reform.

A bigger rethink is needed for two major reasons.

First, most of the economic growth on record for humanity is due to ever expanding exploitation of resources, and in resources I include new lands to settle. This driver is close to used up. There is essentially no new land to expand into, that what of that there is such as the Amazon rain forest is very controversial in terms of world scale environmental degradation. And in terms of resources, the low hanging fruit is gone. Even oil shales are expensive to produce, as are deep offshore wells and arctic wells.

The other reason for a rethink is the rapid insertion of AI/robotics. A double whammy that will make the labor situation as we currently experience it extremely stressed.. So a larger rethink of the economy beyond taxes is essential now.

A new study shows that areas that Trump won big are areas that worked on the old economy and are the ones deemed to be most susceptible to displacement by AI. These jobs Trump has promised are not coming back, or if they do it will be short term. There is a reason that lesser skilled tasks were more efficient (dollar wise) offshore. And those fundamentals haven't changed.

Here is a short review of the whole AI problem: A wave of automation-caused job loss is coming, and Trump states will bear the brunt of it

And yes, new tax paradigms will be needed to adjust to this brave new world of autonomous robots and static economies in terms of growth.
Likes: BigLeRoy