world population PROJECTIONS 2100/ 2200??

what will the HUMAN population of the world be in 2200?

  • 0 - nuclear/asteroid holocaust

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 7 billion (about the same)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 10 billion

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 18 billion

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    4
Mar 2012
995
246
Hertfordshire, UK
#1
*I'm planning to write a novel. Its set in the future of course- the first voyage to alpha centauri. the world is suffering from massive overpopulation and we need to expand beyond the solar system. obviously Mars and the moon are already colonies.
*anyway I know i'll use some artistic licence but I'm trying to do a little bit of research on possible population trends. I reckon we might have decent-ish population projections for 2100 but what about 2200?? or is that a step too far which is simply beyond demographers?

r there any decent websites which have populations predictions for some 100 years time??

I assume china and india will still be runaway leaders but expect below that it will change a bit. tremendous birthrates from 3rd world countries will no doubt shake things up a bit. Europe will probably stay about the same.
*who will be the biggest country in the Americas. Brazil and Mexico are decent candidates. the U.S is a funny one. they could go either way. birth rates might not be as high as 3rd world countries but no doubt immigration will be high. people will flock to USA in droves for decades to come I believe.
maybe somewhere like Canada will be 'the new USA' & experience an immigration explosion soon- lets face it they have plenty of land.

HELL we'll probably have some new countries by then? Maybe antarctica will be richly populated??


what do u GUESS will happen? I heard it will be 9 billion by 2043!!

any good websites for this kinda stuff?
 
Last edited:
Jul 2013
56,962
62,461
Nashville, TN
#2
2050 is projected at 9.7 billion.
https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/worldpopgraph.php


So 10 billion people is the uppermost population limit where food is concerned. Because it's extremely unlikely that everyone will agree to stop eating meat, Wilson thinks the maximum carrying capacity of the Earth based on food resources will most likely fall short of 10 billion.Oct 11, 2011
One such scientist, the eminent Harvard University sociobiologist Edward O. Wilson, bases his estimate on calculations of the Earth's available resources. As Wilson pointed out in his book "The Future of Life" (Knopf, 2002), "The constraints of the biosphere are fixed."

Aside from the limited availability of freshwater, there are indeed constraints on the amount of food that Earth can produce, just as Malthus argued more than 200 years ago. Even in the case of maximum efficiency, in which all the grains grown are dedicated to feeding humans (instead of livestock, which is an inefficient way to convert plant energy into food energy), there's still a limit to how far the available quantities can stretch. "If everyone agreed to become vegetarian, leaving little or nothing for livestock, the present 1.4 billion hectares of arable land (3.5 billion acres) would support about 10 billion people," Wilson wrote.

The 3.5 billion acres would produce approximately 2 billion tons of grains annually, he explained. That's enough to feed 10 billion vegetarians, but would only feed 2.5 billion U.S. omnivores, because so much vegetation is dedicated to livestock and poultry in the United States.

So 10 billion people is the uppermost population limit where food is concerned. Because it's extremely unlikely that everyone will agree to stop eating meat, Wilson thinks the maximum carrying capacity of the Earth based on food resources will most likely fall short of 10 billion. [When Will Earth Run Out of Food?]

According to population biologist Joel Cohen of Columbia University, other environmental factors that limit the Earth's carrying capacity are the nitrogen cycle, available quantities of phosphorus, and atmospheric carbon concentrations, but there is a great amount of uncertainty in the impact of all of these factors. "In truth, no one knows when or at what level peak population will be reached," Cohen told Life's Little Mysteries
How Many People Can Planet Earth Support? | When Will the Human Population Start to Decline?
 

Djinn

Council Hall
Dec 2007
51,639
38,442
Pennsylvania, USA
#3
I'd say about 12 billion in 2250. World population is still growing - but it's plateaued quite a bit.
 

Djinn

Council Hall
Dec 2007
51,639
38,442
Pennsylvania, USA
#5
And they will be living on Soylent Green
Nah... We've got the basics for growing artificial meat. It's still not cost effective, but I'm betting that in as little as 10-20 years, it'll be commonplace, and meat gardens* will start to replace cattle farms.






* "Meat Garden" would be a great name for a heavy metal band.
 
Jul 2013
56,962
62,461
Nashville, TN
#6
Nah... We've got the basics for growing artificial meat. It's still not cost effective, but I'm betting that in as little as 10-20 years, it'll be commonplace, and meat gardens* will start to replace cattle farms.





* "Meat Garden" would be a great name for a heavy metal band.
Ok, Soylent Green and Soylent Yellow. Yum, yum.
 

Babba

Former Staff
Jul 2007
76,451
67,413
So. Md.
#7
I don't think we'll be reduced to millions but in the next 50 years our population will be reduced to a couple billion because of GW and/or possibly a pandemic. We will be naturally culled one way or the other. I'm not sure if we'll reach current levels again. I think, generally, with the reduced population people will live better lives which includes the vast majority being highly educated. More educated populations tend to reproduce less. I definitely don't think the planet could sustain more than 15 billion with or without artificial meat. I don't think meat is necessary to sustain a population anyway. There are plenty of plant foods that are full of protein.
 

Similar Discussions